Monza vs Empoli: match statistics

I forecast a Monza win (1). Monza win 78% of home matches, average 1.78 goals scored and only 0.56 conceded per game, and have 59 goals for this season versus Empoli’s 45. Empoli have just a 22% win rate away and 67% losses, averaging 0.94 goals scored, 1.72 conceded and failing to score in 39% of away fixtures, which significantly limits their attacking output. Monza generate more high-quality chances — 15 average shots and 5.06 shots on target at home with average xG 1.66 (xG against 1.14), while Empoli away register 9.89 shots, 3.17 on target and xG 1.13 (xG against 1.72). In the last 5 matches Monza scored 9 goals and average 2.0 points per game, Empoli only 2 goals and 0.8 points per game, and Monza also have 50% clean sheets at home versus Empoli’s 17% away; all factors favor Monza, hence a 75% probability for the hosts.

I back 'no' — assigning a 68% probability that both teams will not score, and 32% for BTTS - Yes. The key signal is Empoli’s poor away finishing: 0.94 goals per match on average this season, only 0.4 goals in the last 5 matches and 39% of away games without a goal. Monza generates significantly more chances at home (14.53 shots and 4.89 on target per match), averages 1.47 goals this season and 1.8 in the last 5, and the home xG is 1.59, so the home side is likely to score. Defensively Monza has looked solid recently (last 5 matches — 0.8 goals conceded; seasonally 1.11 at home), while Empoli, despite conceding 1.72 goals on average away, has only scored 2 goals in the last 5 away fixtures, which undermines a BTTS scenario. Although Monza’s seasonal home BTTS rate is 74% and only 40% in the last 5, the dominant signal is Empoli failing to score, hence the justified selection of 'no'.

Total expected goals based on xG are approximately 2.79 (Monza 1.66 + Empoli 1.13): Monza has xG_for 1.59 and Empoli xG_against 1.72, yielding 1.66 for the home side; Empoli has xG_for 1.13 against Monza xG_against 1.14, yielding 1.13 for the visitors. Seasonal profiles confirm a tendency for at least two goals — Monza recorded Over 1.5 in 79% of matches, Empoli in 72%, while the league averages 2.54 goals per game. Monza scored 59 and conceded 30 (avg. 1.47 goals scored and 1.11 conceded), whereas Empoli has 45 scored and 52 conceded (0.94 scored and 1.72 conceded), which favors the home attack and exposes the visitors’ defense. Monza averages 14.53 shots and 4.89 on target per game versus Empoli’s 9.89 and 3.17, and additionally 74% of Monza’s matches and 44% of Empoli’s matches see both teams score, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. On this basis I recommend an Over 1.5 bet as the strongest signal (estimated probability 86%); Over 2.5 is moderately favored (~62%), and Over 3.5 has a low chance (~25%).

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Monza win at full-time (X/1). Monza have won 60% of their last five matches compared to Empoli’s 20%, giving the home side the advantage over 90 minutes. Empoli are frequently level at the break — 72% of matches this season and 80% in their last five — so a draw HT is realistic. After the break Monza average 1.0 goals (in second halves) versus 0.44 for Empoli and have a second-half goal difference of +12 compared to Empoli’s -15, which indicates Monza are prone to turnarounds. Additionally Monza have an xG of 1.59 versus Empoli’s 1.13 and average 4.89 shots on target against 3.17, while Empoli concede 9 and 8 goals in minutes 61–75 and 76–90 respectively versus 2 and 2 conceded by Monza, therefore X/1 is the strongest signal.