Morelia vs CA La Paz: match statistics
Morelia displays solid home form with 50% wins at home and an impressive goal difference of +8 at their own stadium. The hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 7 goals and conceding just 3, which indicates good form. CA La Paz, despite decent form with no losses in their last 5 matches, has a weaker away record - only 30% wins and an average of 1.6 goals conceded per match on the road. Morelia outperforms their opponent in terms of xG in home matches (1.89 vs 1.43 away xG), suggesting greater offensive efficiency. The difference in home quality for Morelia and CA La Paz's tendency to draw away (50%) point to a probable home win, although a draw also remains a realistic scenario.
Morelia vs CA La Paz: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Morelia played against CA La Paz in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The game was played on March 1, 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
Morelia has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.00 points per game. CA La Paz has 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses, with 1.80 points per game.
Scoring records
Morelia scores 1.42 goals per game and allows 1.13. CA La Paz scores 1.74 and allows 1.79. Games in this league average 2.92 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 46% of Morelia's games and 63% of CA La Paz's. The Over 2.5 rates are 54% and 68%, compared with league averages of 55% for BTTS and 54% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
CA La Paz has the higher season xG average, 1.65 to 1.62 per game. Morelia takes 13.6 shots per game, while CA La Paz takes 14.2.
First-half and second-half trends
Morelia leads at halftime in 38% of its games and scores 0.71 goals per game after halftime. CA La Paz leads at halftime in 42% and scores 0.74 after halftime.
When the teams score
Morelia's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (9 goals). For CA La Paz, it is minutes 31-45+ (9 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ascenso MX games average 2.92 goals. Both teams score in 55% of games, and 54% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Morelia displays solid home form with 50% wins at home and an impressive goal difference of +8 at their own stadium. The hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 7 goals and conceding just 3, which indicates good form. CA La Paz, despite decent form with no losses in their last 5 matches, has a weaker away record - only 30% wins and an average of 1.6 goals conceded per match on the road. Morelia outperforms their opponent in terms of xG in home matches (1.89 vs 1.43 away xG), suggesting greater offensive efficiency. The difference in home quality for Morelia and CA La Paz's tendency to draw away (50%) point to a probable home win, although a draw also remains a realistic scenario.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Morelia | CA La Paz | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Morelia is 11% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / game - Morelia · 1.8 pts / game - CA La Paz
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
CA La Paz is 23% better for: goals scored per game.
1.42 goals / game - Morelia · 1.74 goals / game - CA La Paz
Morelia is 58% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.13 goals / game - Morelia · 1.79 goals / game - CA La Paz
Morelia scores in 71% of games (17 of 24 meczów), while CA La Paz keeps a clean sheet in 26% (5 of 19 meczów).
CA La Paz scores in 84% of games (16 of 19 meczów), while Morelia keeps a clean sheet in 38% (9 of 24 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Morelia
Over / Under - CA La Paz
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Morelia is 11% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.63 pts / game - Morelia · 1.47 pts / game - CA La Paz
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Morelia - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 38% of games and wins 42%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
CA La Paz - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 42% of games and wins 32%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (9 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Morelia
CA La Paz
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Morelia | Liga | CA La Paz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.54 | 2.92 | ▲ 3.53 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 46% | 55% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 54% | 54% | ▲ 68% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 27% | • 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 74% | ▲ 89% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 79% | ▼ 68% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Record from Morelia's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against CA La Paz. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Morelia vs CA La Paz?
The Ascenso MX match finished Morelia 1:0 CA La Paz. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Morelia vs CA La Paz?
Morelia score 1.42 goals per game on average and CA La Paz 1.74. The Ascenso MX average is 2.92 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 46% of Morelia's matches and 63% of CA La Paz's.
What form are Morelia and CA La Paz in?
Over the last 5 games Morelia have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and CA La Paz 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Morelia vs CA La Paz?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.