Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: match statistics
Morelia exhibits a significantly better home form with a 54% win rate at their own stadium and an impressive +9 goal difference in home matches. The hosts score an average of 1.46 goals per home match with an xG of 1.89, indicating offensive proficiency. Tepatitlán de Morelos struggles on the road – securing only 23% wins and recording as much as 54% draws, which makes them a tough, defensive-minded opponent. Another key factor is the difference in ball possession (55% vs 49%) and average shots (16.85 vs 12.69) in favor of Morelia. Given the recent form of both teams (both averaging 2 points per game in their last 5 fixtures) and the hosts' advantage on their own turf, I expect a victory for Morelia, although the visitors' high draw percentage implies the possibility of shared points. The xG stats (1.89 vs 1.55) further confirm the hosts' qualitative edge in the attack.
Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Morelia played against Tepatitlán de Morelos in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The game was played on March 15, 2026. Final score: 3:2.
Recent form
Morelia has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.00 points per game. Tepatitlán de Morelos has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 2.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Morelia scores 1.38 goals per game and allows 1.12. Tepatitlán de Morelos scores 1.30 and allows 0.85. Games in this league average 2.92 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 46% of Morelia's games and 48% of Tepatitlán de Morelos's. The Over 2.5 rates are 54% and 37%, compared with league averages of 54% for BTTS and 54% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Tepatitlán de Morelos has the higher season xG average, 1.65 to 1.59 per game. Morelia takes 13.5 shots per game, while Tepatitlán de Morelos takes 13.9.
First-half and second-half trends
Morelia leads at halftime in 35% of its games and scores 0.69 goals per game after halftime. Tepatitlán de Morelos leads at halftime in 30% and scores 0.70 after halftime.
When the teams score
Morelia's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (10 goals). For Tepatitlán de Morelos, it is minutes 76-90+ (13 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ascenso MX games average 2.92 goals. Both teams score in 54% of games, and 54% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 5.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Morelia exhibits a significantly better home form with a 54% win rate at their own stadium and an impressive +9 goal difference in home matches. The hosts score an average of 1.46 goals per home match with an xG of 1.89, indicating offensive proficiency. Tepatitlán de Morelos struggles on the road – securing only 23% wins and recording as much as 54% draws, which makes them a tough, defensive-minded opponent. Another key factor is the difference in ball possession (55% vs 49%) and average shots (16.85 vs 12.69) in favor of Morelia. Given the recent form of both teams (both averaging 2 points per game in their last 5 fixtures) and the hosts' advantage on their own turf, I expect a victory for Morelia, although the visitors' high draw percentage implies the possibility of shared points. The xG stats (1.89 vs 1.55) further confirm the hosts' qualitative edge in the attack.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Morelia | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Morelia is 6% better for: goals scored per game.
1.38 goals / game - Morelia · 1.3 goals / game - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 32% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.12 goals / game - Morelia · 0.85 goals / game - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Morelia scores in 73% of games (19 of 26 meczów), while Tepatitlán de Morelos keeps a clean sheet in 33% (9 of 27 meczów).
Tepatitlán de Morelos scores in 67% of games (18 of 27 meczów), while Morelia keeps a clean sheet in 38% (10 of 26 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Morelia
Over / Under - Tepatitlán de Morelos
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Morelia is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.54 pts / game - Morelia · 1.3 pts / game - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Morelia - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 35% of games and wins 42%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Tepatitlán de Morelos - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 30% of games and wins 37%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Morelia
Tepatitlán de Morelos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Morelia | Liga | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.50 | 2.92 | ▼ 2.15 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 46% | 54% | ▼ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 54% | 54% | ▼ 37% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 27% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 62% | 73% | ▼ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 77% | 80% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Morelia's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against Tepatitlán de Morelos. Games average 5.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
The Ascenso MX match finished Morelia 3:2 Tepatitlán de Morelos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Morelia score 1.38 goals per game on average and Tepatitlán de Morelos 1.30. The Ascenso MX average is 2.92 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 46% of Morelia's matches and 48% of Tepatitlán de Morelos's.
What form are Morelia and Tepatitlán de Morelos in?
Over the last 5 games Morelia have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.