Morelia vs Venados: match statistics
Morelia displays significantly better home form with a 45% win rate and an impressive +7 goal difference at their own stadium. The hosts record a solid 1.97 xG in home matches while conceding just 0.82 goals on average, highlighting their offensive superiority and defensive stability. Venados shows alarming weaknesses on the road with a 78% loss rate, a 0% clean sheet percentage, and a negative -8 goal difference. The visitors have suffered five consecutive away defeats in their last five road games, conceding an average of 2.44 goals per match. Morelia also holds the advantage in possession (55% vs 47%) and boasts a significantly better shot accuracy, which, backed by their home support, should translate into a confident victory for the hosts.
Morelia vs Venados: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Morelia played against Venados in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The game was played on February 15, 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
Morelia has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 1.60 points per game. Venados has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 1.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Morelia scores 1.41 goals per game and allows 1.18. Venados scores 2.20 and allows 2.15. Games in this league average 2.92 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 45% of Morelia's games and 65% of Venados's. The Over 2.5 rates are 55% and 65%, compared with league averages of 55% for BTTS and 53% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Morelia has the higher season xG average, 1.66 to 1.50 per game. Morelia takes 13.9 shots per game, while Venados takes 12.9.
First-half and second-half trends
Morelia leads at halftime in 36% of its games and scores 0.68 goals per game after halftime. Venados leads at halftime in 30% and scores 1.20 after halftime.
When the teams score
Morelia's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (8 goals). For Venados, it is minutes 46-60 (9 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ascenso MX games average 2.92 goals. Both teams score in 55% of games, and 53% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Morelia displays significantly better home form with a 45% win rate and an impressive +7 goal difference at their own stadium. The hosts record a solid 1.97 xG in home matches while conceding just 0.82 goals on average, highlighting their offensive superiority and defensive stability. Venados shows alarming weaknesses on the road with a 78% loss rate, a 0% clean sheet percentage, and a negative -8 goal difference. The visitors have suffered five consecutive away defeats in their last five road games, conceding an average of 2.44 goals per match. Morelia also holds the advantage in possession (55% vs 47%) and boasts a significantly better shot accuracy, which, backed by their home support, should translate into a confident victory for the hosts.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Morelia | Venados | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.43 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Morelia is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / game - Morelia · 1 pts / game - Venados
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Venados is 56% better for: goals scored per game.
1.41 goals / game - Morelia · 2.2 goals / game - Venados
Morelia is 82% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.18 goals / game - Morelia · 2.15 goals / game - Venados
Morelia scores in 68% of games (15 of 22 meczów), while Venados keeps a clean sheet in 10% (2 of 20 meczów).
Venados scores in 75% of games (15 of 20 meczów), while Morelia keeps a clean sheet in 36% (8 of 22 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Morelia
Over / Under - Venados
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Morelia is 14% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.59 pts / game - Morelia · 1.4 pts / game - Venados
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Morelia - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 36% of games and wins 36%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Venados - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 30% of games and wins 35%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.6 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 3.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Morelia
Venados
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Morelia | Liga | Venados | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.59 | 2.92 | ▲ 4.35 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 45% | 55% | ▲ 65% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 55% | 53% | ▲ 65% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 27% | ▼ 10% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 75% | ▼ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | • 77% | 78% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Morelia's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against Venados. Games average 4.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Morelia vs Venados?
The Ascenso MX match finished Morelia 2:1 Venados. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Morelia vs Venados?
Morelia score 1.41 goals per game on average and Venados 2.20. The Ascenso MX average is 2.92 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 45% of Morelia's matches and 65% of Venados's.
What form are Morelia and Venados in?
Over the last 5 games Morelia have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Venados 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Morelia vs Venados?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.