Motherwell vs Celtic: match statistics

I project an away win (Celtic). Celtic have won all 5 of their last matches, scoring 15 goals in that span (avg. 3.0 per game), whereas Motherwell have only 1 win and 7 goals (1.4 per game) and average 0.8 points per match over the same period. However, Motherwell concede just 0.56 goals per home game and keep a clean sheet in 67% of home matches; their home xG is 1.66 versus xG against 1.05, signalling a strong defensive profile at Fir Park. Celtic dominate possession more (65% vs 59%) and have a similar away xG (1.65), but average 1.5 goals scored and 1.33 conceded on the road with only 22% clean sheets; additionally Motherwell generate more on-target shots at home (5.61 vs 4.22), so the hosts can create quality chances. Considering Celtic’s superior form and efficiency (avg. 3.0 points per game in the last 5 vs 0.8 for Motherwell), I assign a 60% probability to an away win, 25% to a draw and 15% to a home win.

Strong signal for BTTS - Yes — both teams have 80% BTTS in their last 5 matches, with seasonal rates of 50% for Motherwell and 61% for Celtic versus a league average of 51%. Offensive factors support this scenario: Motherwell score 2.22 goals at home on average with xG 2.2, while Celtic average 1.5 goals and xG 1.65; additionally Celtic have averaged 3.0 goals per game in their last 5 matches, whereas Motherwell have been conceding 2.0 goals on average. Although Motherwell concede only 0.78 goals per game at home seasonally and maintain 50% clean sheets, recent results show increased vulnerability to goals, and Celtic have just 22% clean sheets away, raising the likelihood of them conceding. The high share of matches over 2.5 goals (72% for the home side and 61% for the away) and the fact that the combination of over 2.5 and BTTS occurs in 50% of Motherwell’s matches and 61% of Celtic’s further reinforce a both-teams-to-score scenario. Based on this, I pick BTTS - Yes and assess the probability at 75% vs 25% for No.

I estimate total expected goals at 2.99, with Motherwell at 1.74 xG and Celtic at 1.25 xG (calculated as averages: Motherwell xG_for 2.20 adjusted by Celtic xG_against 1.27; Celtic xG_for 1.65 adjusted by Motherwell xG_against 0.84). Seasonal data show a high percentage of matches over 1.5 goals: Motherwell 78% and Celtic 83%, and seasonal average goals scored are 2.22 (Motherwell home) and 1.50 (Celtic away), totaling 3.72 goals. In the last 5 matches Celtic scored 15 goals with an average xG of 1.81, and Motherwell 7 goals with an average xG of 1.33; the share of matches over 2.5 in the last 5 is 80% for Celtic and 60% for Motherwell. Additionally, Motherwell averages 18.39 shots with 7.06 on target, Celtic 15.0 with 4.22 on target, and the percentage of games with both teams scoring is 50% (Motherwell) and 61% (Celtic), which increases the likelihood of at least two goals. As a result the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation: back Over at 1.5) with an estimated probability of 88%; Over 2.5 I assess at 68%, and Over 3.5 at 30%.

Motherwell hold the edge in the first half: they led at the break in 10 matches (56%) and score on average 0.94 goals by half-time versus Celtic’s 0.78, while conceding an average of 0.28 goals to the break versus 0.67. Season-long metrics confirm their first-half offensive strength – home xG 2.20 versus Celtic’s 1.65, average shots on target 7.06 vs 4.22 and season PPG 2.39 compared to 1.83 – which supports a scenario of taking a lead at the break and maintaining it. The hosts also register a high percentage of clean sheets at half-time (72%), but Celtic are in excellent form: 5 wins in their last 5 matches (100%) and in those five games they led at the break 60% of the time, so a turnaround after half-time is realistic. For these reasons the most reliable signal is the 1/1 HT/FT scenario (Motherwell lead at half-time and win), while I assign roughly a 30% probability to scenarios in which Celtic come back and win after the break.