Municipal Limeño vs Cacahuatique: match statistics

Municipal Limeño holds a clear advantage in form and efficiency: in the last 5 matches they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, averaging 2.0 points per game, while Cacahuatique is winless in their last five (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses) and averages 0.6 pts per game. At home Municipal score 1.59 goals per match (61 goals this season) on 10.82 shots, whereas the visitors average 1.3 goals away (53 this season) on 7.91 shots, giving the hosts a creativity edge. Quality of chances also favors Limeño: home xG for the hosts is 1.58 versus 1.26 xG for the guests away, despite similar shot efficiency (conversion 15% vs 16%). Defensively the hosts concede 0.95 goals per home game, while Cacahuatique concede 1.26 on the road and have a lower clean sheet rate (30% vs 41% for the hosts). Considering better form, higher shot volume, superior xG and more solid defense, I favor a home win (approx. 68%), price a draw at 18% and an away win at 14%.

Seasonal indicators point to a moderate probability of BTTS: Municipal Limeño has BTTS in 57% of matches, Cacahuatique in 52%, and the league average is 54%, favoring the 'both teams to score' scenario. In the last 5 matches Municipal scored 9 goals (1.8 per match) and conceded 5 (1.0), while Cacahuatique has 3 goals (0.6 per match) and conceded 7 (1.4), which lowers their scoring capability despite a 60% BTTS rate in those five fixtures. xG and scoring chances also argue for goals at both ends: xG for Municipal is 1.51 versus 1.26 for Cacahuatique, xG against 1.46 vs 1.60, and average shots on target are 4.05 vs 4.35 with conversion rates of 11% vs 16%. Considering seasonal BTTS ~54–57%, Municipal’s superior attacking form (9 goals in last 5) and Cacahuatique’s weaker defense (63 goals conceded this season and xG against 1.60), I pick BTTS - Yes with a 60% confidence versus 40% for No.

Both teams generate meaningful xG: Municipal Limeño xG_for 1.51 versus opponent xG_against 1.60, and Cacahuatique xG_for 1.26 against hosts xG_against 1.46, yielding averaged expected goals of ~1.56 for the home side and ~1.36 for the visitors (total ~2.92). Seasonally both teams have 74% of matches over 1.5 goals, while the over 2.5 rates are 52% for Municipal and 61% for Cacahuatique, which on average supports Over 2.5, but the strongest signal remains Over 1.5. Additionally, Both Teams To Score rates are 57% (home) and 52% (away), the league averages 2.7 goals per game, and the last 5 matches show Municipal scoring 9 goals (1.8 avg.) versus Cacahuatique’s 3 goals (0.6 avg.), increasing the likelihood of goals in this fixture. Based on this I assign 80% probability to Over 1.5, 62% to Over 2.5 and 22% to Over 3.5 (corresponding Under probabilities 20%/38%/78%), so I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the strongest, most reliable signal.

The most likely scenario is 1/1 (home team leads at half-time and wins), which I assign a 33% probability to, because Municipal Limeño led at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches (60%) and also won 3 of 5 (60%), while Cacahuatique has no wins in their last 5 (0%). The home side averages 9.64 shots per match versus 7.91 for the visitors and have a higher xG (1.51 vs 1.26), and over the last 5 matches they averaged 1.0 goal in the first half compared to their opponents’ 0.4, increasing the likelihood of the home team taking a lead at the break. The visitors are more efficient in finishing (conversion rate 16% versus the home team’s 11%) and have a better seasonal win rate (43% vs the home side’s 13%), but current form favors Municipal — average points per game over the last 5 matches are 2.0 for the hosts versus 0.6 for the guests. Additionally, the home team concedes only 0.2 goals on average by half-time in the last 5 matches, while Cacahuatique concedes 0.4; the second half often produces goals (the second half has at least one goal in 74% of the hosts’ matches and 87% of the visitors’), so the scenario of the home team leading at half-time and maintaining that advantage to full-time is the most justified.