Musanze vs Police: match statistics

Musanze have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses), scoring just 1 goal and conceding 6 in that period, averaging 0.4 points per match. Across the season Musanze have 33 goals scored and 32 conceded, while Police have 26 scored and only 18 conceded, indicating a clear defensive advantage for the visitors. At home Musanze average 1.2 goals with 2.46 shots on target and xG 1.14, whereas Police away register only 0.6 goals, xG 1.01 and 2.15 shots on target — so the visitors are weak offensively. Police concede just 0.53 goals per away match and have a 53% clean sheet rate, but they also fail to score in 53% of away games, which favors low-scoring draws; therefore the most likely outcome is a draw.

I back 'No Goal' (no BTTS) because clean-sheet rates and recent low forms outweigh offensive signals: clean sheets are 33% for Musanze and 53% for Police, and league clean-sheet rate is 71%. Season goal averages point to limited goal exchanges: Musanze scores 1.13 gpm, Police 0.60, and season CS conceded averages are 0.67 for Musanze and 0.53 for Police, meaning Police concedes less frequently. Last 5 matches confirm a defensive trend — Musanze averages 0.2 goals for and concedes 1.2, while Police averages 0.8 and concedes 0.8 (Police 4 goals in last 5, Musanze 1), so only Police shows moderate productivity. Chance-creation metrics are moderate: xG Musanze 1.23 and xG Police 1.01 with on-target shots 3.14 for Musanze and 2.15 for Police, yet season BTTS rates are only 40% for Musanze and 33% for Police (league 43%), indicating a tilt toward a No BTTS scenario. Based on this I assess BTTS probability at ~30% for 'Yes' and ~70% for 'No'.

Based on xG calculated as the average of each side’s attack and opponent’s defense, I obtained 1.04 xG for Musanze (1.23 attack vs 0.85 defense of Police) and 0.99 xG for Police (1.01 attack vs 0.97 defense), totaling 2.03 expected goals. A Poisson distribution with mu=2.03 yields ~60% probability of Over 1.5 goals, ~33% for Over 2.5 and ~15% for Over 3.5, which forms the probabilistic basis of the forecast. Seasonal data, however, weaken the over signal: both teams have only 20% of matches with over 2.5 goals, Police keep a clean sheet in 53% of matches, while both-teams-to-score rates are 40% for Musanze and 33% for Police. Additionally, Musanze averages 7.14 shots (3.14 on target) with a 17% conversion rate, and Police 6.77 shots (2.15 on target) with a 10% conversion, suggesting moderate attacking efficiency. Considering xG=2.03 and the historical 20% over-2.5 rate for both teams, I recommend Under 2.5 as the strongest signal (estimated 67% probability).

Data show that the most common half-time state is a draw — 53% of matches are tied at the break, with home and away teams averaging 0.67 and 0.47 goals in the first half respectively. Musanze has a clear advantage after the break: they average 1.13 goals in the second half and score at least once after halftime in 93% of matches, whereas Police average 0.67 goals after the break and only 40% of their games feature a post-break goal. Additionally, Musanze have higher xG (1.23 vs 1.01), more on-target shots (3.14 vs 2.15) and better finishing efficiency (17% vs 10%), which increases their chances of turning the result around after the interval. Police, however, keep a clean sheet in 53% of matches and concede only 0.53 goals on average, so Musanze’s superiority is likely to materialize only in the second half. On this basis the safest scenario is a draw at half-time and a Musanze win at full-time (X/1), with a draw-draw (X/X) as a materially probable alternative.