NAC Breda vs Emmen: match statistics

NAC Breda head into this match unbeaten in their last 5 games, having won 3 and drawn 2 while conceding just 2 goals. Emmen have also won 3 of their last 5 matches, but have suffered 2 defeats and conceded 8 goals, which points to the hosts. At home, NAC create chances worth an average xG of 2.03, compared with Emmen’s 1.75 away from home, while allowing opponents an xG of 0.91 versus the 1.29 conceded by the visitors. Emmen remain dangerous, averaging 2.17 goals away from home compared with NAC’s 1.83 at home, but they also concede 2.00 goals per game against 1.67 for the hosts. With both teams recording an identical 50% win rate in these conditions, NAC hold a slight edge thanks to their stronger recent defensive record and chance quality.

Across the season, both teams have scored in 50% of their matches, but their last 5 games point to a decline in this rate—to 40% for NAC and 20% for Emmen. The key factor is the hosts’ improved defense: during this period, they conceded an average of just 0.4 goals, while opponents created chances worth 0.91 xG per match against them. Emmen have recently averaged 1.2 goals from an xG of 1.28, increasing the risk that they fail to score against a defense of this calibre. NAC, meanwhile, have a strong chance of finding the net themselves, having recently generated 1.89 xG, while Emmen allowed opponents chances worth 2.09 xG. Therefore, a one-sided scoring scenario—where only one team scores—is marginally more likely, although Emmen’s season average of 2.17 goals per match means goals from both sides cannot be ruled out.

At least two goals were scored in 75% of NAC Breda matches and 100% of Emmen matches, providing the strongest indication for Over 1.5 goals. NAC average 1.63 goals scored per match, compared with 2.17 for Emmen, while their respective averages for goals conceded are 1.75 and 2.00. Their attacking potential is supported by xG figures of 1.86 for the home side and 1.75 for the visitors, although their last five matches produced averages of only 2.0 and 2.8 total goals, respectively. This recent drop in finishing efficiency warrants caution at higher goal lines, but with a projected total of 3.15 goals, Over 1.5 remains the most likely pick.

The strongest signal is NAC Breda leading at the break and maintaining that advantage until the end of the match. The hosts led at half-time in 38% of their games, while Emmen were trailing at the break in 50%; in addition, the visitors conceded an average of 1.17 goals before half-time, compared with NAC’s average of 0.63 goals scored. Recent form also favors a home win: over their last five matches, NAC averaged 2.2 points and conceded 0.4 goals, while Emmen averaged 1.8 points and conceded 1.6 goals. A draw at half-time remains a significant alternative, as NAC were level after 45 minutes in three of their last five matches. Although Emmen averaged 1.33 goals scored in second halves, NAC have not conceded in the second half in any of their last five matches, strengthening the case for them to hold on to their lead.