Nairobi United vs TransMara Sugar: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a closely contested match with a higher probability of a draw scenario. Nairobi United displays unstable home form with a record of 33% wins, draws, and losses at their home ground, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game. TransMara Sugar demonstrates solid away performance with 60% draws and only 0% losses in away matches, making them a tough opponent. The visitors have better form in their last five matches (1.4 points per game) compared to the hosts (1.0 point), as well as a more favorable goal difference away from home (+2). The average xG for both teams is very similar (0.94 vs 0.84), confirming the balanced nature of the encounter. Considering TransMara Sugar's tendency to draw away and Nairobi United's instability at home, the most likely outcome is a share of the points.
Nairobi United vs TransMara Sugar: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Nairobi United played against TransMara Sugar in Kenyan Premier League (Kenya). The game was played on February 9, 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Recent form
Nairobi United has 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 0.80 points per game. TransMara Sugar has 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 0.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Nairobi United scores 1.21 goals per game and allows 1.16. TransMara Sugar scores 0.84 and allows 1.00. Games in this league average 2.03 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 47% of Nairobi United's games and 37% of TransMara Sugar's. The Over 2.5 rates are 32% and 26%, compared with league averages of 45% for BTTS and 34% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Nairobi United has the higher season xG average, 1.55 to 1.50 per game. Nairobi United takes 9.7 shots per game, while TransMara Sugar takes 11.2.
First-half and second-half trends
Nairobi United leads at halftime in 16% of its games and scores 0.26 goals per game after halftime. TransMara Sugar leads at halftime in 0% and scores 0.32 after halftime.
When the teams score
Nairobi United's most productive scoring window is minutes 0-15 (14 goals). For TransMara Sugar, it is minutes 0-15 (10 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Kenyan Premier League games average 2.03 goals. Both teams score in 45% of games, and 34% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a closely contested match with a higher probability of a draw scenario. Nairobi United displays unstable home form with a record of 33% wins, draws, and losses at their home ground, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game. TransMara Sugar demonstrates solid away performance with 60% draws and only 0% losses in away matches, making them a tough opponent. The visitors have better form in their last five matches (1.4 points per game) compared to the hosts (1.0 point), as well as a more favorable goal difference away from home (+2). The average xG for both teams is very similar (0.94 vs 0.84), confirming the balanced nature of the encounter. Considering TransMara Sugar's tendency to draw away and Nairobi United's instability at home, the most likely outcome is a share of the points.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Nairobi United | TransMara Sugar | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 23% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Nairobi United is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / game - Nairobi United · 0.4 pts / game - TransMara Sugar
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nairobi United is 44% better for: goals scored per game.
1.21 goals / game - Nairobi United · 0.84 goals / game - TransMara Sugar
TransMara Sugar is 16% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.16 goals / game - Nairobi United · 1 goals / game - TransMara Sugar
Nairobi United scores in 68% of games (13 of 19 meczów), while TransMara Sugar keeps a clean sheet in 37% (7 of 19 meczów).
TransMara Sugar scores in 53% of games (10 of 19 meczów), while Nairobi United keeps a clean sheet in 21% (4 of 19 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Nairobi United
Over / Under - TransMara Sugar
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nairobi United is 30% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.16 pts / game - Nairobi United · 0.89 pts / game - TransMara Sugar
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nairobi United - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 16% of games and wins 37%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
TransMara Sugar - second-half results
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Average goals per game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 100% |
| No goal | 100% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 100% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (14 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (17). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (10 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Nairobi United
TransMara Sugar
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kenyan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Nairobi United | Liga | TransMara Sugar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 2.37 | 2.03 | ▼ 1.84 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 47% | 45% | ▼ 37% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 32% | 34% | ▼ 26% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 35% | ▲ 37% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 37% | 28% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 32% | 30% | ▲ 32% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Record from Nairobi United's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against TransMara Sugar. Games average 1.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Nairobi United vs TransMara Sugar?
The Kenyan Premier League match finished Nairobi United 1:1 TransMara Sugar. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Nairobi United vs TransMara Sugar?
Nairobi United score 1.21 goals per game on average and TransMara Sugar 0.84. The Kenyan Premier League average is 2.03 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 34% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Nairobi United's matches and 37% of TransMara Sugar's.
What form are Nairobi United and TransMara Sugar in?
Over the last 5 games Nairobi United have a 0-4-1 record (0.80 points per game) and TransMara Sugar 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nairobi United vs TransMara Sugar?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Nairobi United vs TransMara Sugar: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.