Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen: match statistics

Guangxi Hengchen sit 5th, while Nanjing City are 11th. Across the season, the visitors have won 9 matches and suffered just 4 defeats, compared with the hosts’ 5 wins and 9 losses. Current form also favors Guangxi: they have collected 8 points and scored 12 goals in their last five matches, whereas Nanjing have failed to win any of those games, earning 3 points and scoring only 5 goals. The visitors create slightly better chances, as shown by their average away xG of 1.53 compared with Nanjing’s 1.41 at home, and they also register more shots on target per match—4.0 versus 3.3. Nanjing do, however, boast a stronger home defense, conceding an average of 1.00 goals compared with Guangxi’s 1.33 away from home, making a draw a realistic scenario. Nevertheless, the visitors’ superior season-long quality and significantly better efficiency in recent weeks give them the best chance of securing victory.

The scenario of both teams scoring is primarily supported by Guangxi Hengchen’s weak defense: the visitors kept a clean sheet in only 11% of matches, while conceding an average of 2.2 goals across their last 5 games. Nanjing City managed just 1.0 goal per match in that recent run, but their opponents allowed 1.36 xG, which clearly increases the hosts’ chances of finding the net. Guangxi are in very good attacking form, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.61 xG over their last five appearances, while Nanjing conceded 1.6 goals per match during the same period. BTTS landed in 100% of Nanjing’s last five matches and in 60% of Guangxi’s games, while the visitors’ season rate of 67% is above the league average of 56%. The main risk to the pick is Nanjing’s 50% clean-sheet rate for the season; however, the current form of both defenses more strongly points towards at least one goal from each side.

The match profile favors at least two goals: Guangxi Hengchen have averaged 2.4 goals scored over their last five matches, while Nanjing City have conceded 1.6 goals per game over the same period. The hosts have been less clinical recently, averaging 1.0 goal, but Guangxi have conceded as many as 2.2 goals per match in their last five appearances. Their attacking potential is also reflected in the average xG figures: 1.22 for Nanjing and 1.61 for Guangxi, providing a base of close to 2.9 expected goals. The Over 1.5 goals line has a clear edge, as more than 1.5 goals were scored in 60% of Nanjing’s matches and as many as 89% of Guangxi’s, with both teams regularly allowing opponents to create goalscoring opportunities.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Nanjing City win, as the hosts score 2.1 goals per match over the course of the season and concede only 1.2, while Guangxi Hengchen lose 44% of their matches. Nanjing City have a clear edge in the quality of chances created: their average xG is 1.88 compared with the visitors’ 1.53, while shots on target average 6.3 versus 4.0. The first half could nevertheless be closely contested, as Guangxi have been level at the break in 44% of their matches, and Nanjing have scored just 0.4 goals before half-time across their last five games. After the interval, the hosts should take control: they average 1.2 goals in this half, while Guangxi’s recent defensive performances have seen them concede as many as 1.8 goals after half-time. Despite Nanjing’s weaker recent run, their long-term record stands at a 60% win rate with no defeats, reinforcing the scenario of a draw at half-time and a win at full-time (X/1).