Naprzód Jędrzejów vs Stal Kraśnik: match statistics

Stal Kraśnik has 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches (PPG 2.2) and scored 9 goals in that period, while Naprzód Jędrzejów has 1 win and 4 losses in the last 5 (PPG 0.6) and only 4 goals. At home Naprzód averages 1.63 goals per match with a conversion rate of 11% and 2.75 shots on target per match, indicating better finishing efficiency. Stal on the road, however, creates more chances: on average 12.89 shots and 3.78 shots on target per match and xG 1.51 versus Naprzód’s 1.11 xG, suggesting the visitors generate higher-quality opportunities. Defensively they are similar (Naprzód concedes 1.5 goals per game at home, Stal concedes 1.53 away), but in the last 5 matches Naprzód conceded 7 goals and Stal 4, giving an edge in stability to the visitors. Considering Stal’s better form and higher xG despite lower finishing, I forecast an away win (probability: home 25%, draw 25%, away 50%).

Naprzód Jędrzejów and Stal Kraśnik rarely keep a clean sheet — the home side have only 6% of matches without conceding, and the visitors 7% — with an average conceded goals of 1.53 for both teams this is a strong signal for BTTS. Seasonal BTTS rates are 65% for the home team and 47% for the visitors, and the league-wide BTTS percentage is 59% with an average of 3.1 goals per match, favoring a both teams to score scenario. In the last 5 matches Stal shows BTTS at 80% and an average of 1.8 goals scored, while Naprzód has 40% BTTS and only 0.8 goals per match, so the away side has been more effective offensively recently. xG indicates 1.51 xG for Stal versus 1.24 xG for Naprzód, and both teams allow moderately high xG (1.48 and 1.65) with roughly ~3.8 shots on target each, which confirms the presence of goal-scoring opportunities on both sides. Considering the low clean sheet percentages (6%/7%), Naprzód’s 65% BTTS and Stal’s 80% BTTS in the last 5 matches, I tip BTTS 'Yes' with a probability of 70% versus 30% for 'No'.

Naprzód averages 1.53 goals per home game, while Stal posts a seasonal away average of 0.87; simultaneously xG stands at 1.24 for Naprzód and 1.51 for Stal, indicating greater attacking potential than raw goal averages. Comparing xG: Naprzód xG 1.24 versus Stal’s away xG conceded 1.65 yields expected home goals ≈1.45, and Stal xG 1.51 versus Naprzód’s home xG conceded 1.48 yields ≈1.50; after adjusting for Stal’s low shot conversion (6% vs 10% for Naprzód) I reduce Stal’s forecast to ~1.35. I ultimately project about 1.45 goals for Naprzód and 1.35 for Stal, totaling ~2.80 goals in the match. Seasonal Over1.5 rates are 82% for home teams and 73% for away teams (average ~77%), while Over2.5 is 53% vs 40% (average ~47%), supporting a strong signal for Over1.5 and a more marginal one for Over2.5. A Poisson model with combined xG ≈2.80 estimates Over1.5 ≈77%, Over2.5 ≈53% and Over3.5 ≈31%, therefore the best and strongest line to play is Over 1.5 goals.

At halftime Naprzód led in 23% of their matches, the score was level in 46%, and they trailed in 31%, making a draw the most likely halftime state. Over the full 90 minutes Naprzód wins 35% of matches, draws 24%, while Stal has only 13% wins this season, which overall favors the home side for the final result. Naprzód averages 1.53 goals per game versus Stal’s 0.87, and their shot conversion rate is 10% compared to the visitors’ 6%, so the home team converts chances into goals more effectively. Additionally, Naprzód records an average of 1.85 second-half goals, so a level score at the break (46% of cases) often turns into a home victory after 90 minutes. Despite Stal’s higher xG (1.51 versus Naprzód’s 1.24) and a greater number of shots by the visitors, the lower efficiency (seasonal 0.87 goals per game) and the HT statistics (Naprzód leading 23%, draws 46%) lead me to select the X/1 scenario (draw at Half-Time, Naprzód win Full-Time).