Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati: match statistics

Nashville SC are exceptionally strong at home: they have won 91% of their matches, remain unbeaten there, and average 2.91 goals per game. FC Cincinnati win just 10% of their away matches, draw as many as 50%, and concede an average of 2.60 goals, without a single clean sheet. The hosts also create slightly higher-quality chances, posting an average xG of 1.56 compared with Cincinnati’s 1.43, while registering more shots on target: 5.91 to 5.20. Nashville have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 13 goals during that run, while the visitors have managed just 7. Nashville’s superior finishing efficiency, 22% compared with 15%, combined with Cincinnati’s significantly weaker away form, strongly supports a home win.

The BTTS signal is very strong, as 73% of Nashville’s matches this season featured goals from both teams, while the figure for Cincinnati was as high as 90%, well above the league average of 63%. Cincinnati have kept no clean sheets and concede an average of 2.60 goals per match, while Nashville score 2.82 goals at home. The hosts are not particularly solid defensively either, averaging 1.91 goals conceded with an xG against of 1.65, while Cincinnati create an average of 1.43 xG. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS at 80%; Nashville scored an average of 2.6 goals, while Cincinnati, despite their lower average of 1.4, still regularly created chances worth 1.65 xG. A scenario in which one of the teams fails to score is less likely, as Nashville have been held scoreless in only 9% of their matches, compared with 10% for Cincinnati.

Nashville’s matches average 2.82 goals, while Cincinnati’s games produce an average of 1.80 goals, with both teams exceeding the 1.5-goal line in 91% and 90% of matches, respectively. The hosts create an average of 1.73 xG, while Cincinnati allows opponents 1.93 xG, clearly supporting their scoring potential. The visitors also have offensive arguments: their average xG stands at 1.43, while Nashville’s defense allows opponents 1.65 xG. In Nashville’s last five matches, there have been 3.8 total goals per game, and both teams scored in 80% of those fixtures. The strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5 goals, as the consistency of exceeding this line is very high, while the projected 3.20 goals provide a substantial safety margin.

A draw at half-time is the most logical starting point, as Nashville were level at the break in 45% of their matches, compared with 50% for Cincinnati. However, the home side have a clear advantage over the full match: they won 64% of their games and average 2.82 goals, while Cincinnati have won just 10% of their away matches and concede an average of 2.60 goals. After the break, Nashville score an average of 1.64 goals and earn 1.82 points per game during this period, whereas the visitors score only 0.80 goals and concede 1.50. Moreover, Nashville have won 80% of their last five matches and averaged 1.4 goals after half-time, further strengthening the scenario of a draw at the break followed by a home win at full-time (X/1).