Navbahor vs Bunyodkor: match statistics

Navbahor sit 3rd, while Bunyodkor are only 10th, and current form further strongly favors the hosts: Navbahor have collected 8 points from their last five matches, whereas the visitors have lost all 5 games. During this period, the hosts scored 10 goals, while Bunyodkor managed just 3 and conceded as many as 11. At home, Navbahor create more high-quality chances, averaging 1.65 xG, 14.29 shots and 5.14 shots on target per match, compared with Bunyodkor’s 1.17 xG and 3.14 shots on target away from home. The hosts average 1.86 goals scored at home, while the visitors manage just 0.88 away and fail to score in 50% of such matches. Although Navbahor keep a clean sheet in only 14% of their home games, their attacking advantage, 62% to 50% possession edge and Bunyodkor’s disastrous run point to a home win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Bunyodkor failed to score in 50% of their matches this season and have scored just 3 goals in their last 5 games, averaging 0.6 per match. Although the visitors have an xG of 1.17, their latest xG stands at only 1.16, while Navbahor have conceded an average of 1.2 goals during this period. Navbahor should have a good chance of scoring: they have averaged 2.0 goals in their last 5 appearances, while Bunyodkor have conceded as many as 2.2 goals per game over the same period. Although Navbahor's BTTS rate is 63%, Bunyodkor's is only 25%, well below the league average of 55%, which increases the likelihood of a game in which the visitors fail to score. The most likely scenario is a home win to nil or a result in which at least one team fails to score.

Bunyodkor score an average of just 0.88 goals per match, and have netted only 3 goals in their last five fixtures, averaging 0.6 per game. Navbahor are in significantly better attacking form, with 10 goals in their last five matches, but their average xG stands at 1.57, still pointing more towards a total of one to two goals than a high-scoring game. This season, Bunyodkor matches have finished Under 3.5 goals in as many as 87% of cases, while the figure for Navbahor is 62%. The visitors have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their matches, while also failing to score in 50% of games, which limits the likelihood of a significant contribution to a high total. The projected total of 2.35 goals gives a clear edge to the Under 3.5 goals option.

The strongest signal comes from Navbahor’s current form: in their last five matches, the team averaged 2.0 goals scored, won 40% of their games, and led at the break in as many as 80% of them. Bunyodkor lost all five of their last matches, scoring just 0.6 goals per game during that period, and never took the lead before half-time. The hosts are particularly dangerous in the first half, averaging 1.6 goals before the break recently, while the visitors conceded 1.25 goals during that period. Although Navbahor have a weaker record over the course of the season, Bunyodkor remain very cautious after half-time and kept a clean sheet in that part of the game in 86% of matches. Therefore, the scenario of the hosts taking the lead and holding it until full-time is more likely than a heavy victory.