Neftçi vs Qarabağ: match statistics
Neftçi vs Qarabağ: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Neftçi play Qarabağ in Premyer Liqası (Azerbaijan). The match date is 26 April 2026 at 17:00. Final score: 1:5.
Current form
Neftçi: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match. Qarabağ: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Neftçi scores 1.73 and concedes 0.97 goals per match. Qarabağ scores 2.15 and concedes 0.82. League average: 2.58 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Neftçi 48%, Qarabağ 45%. Over 2.5: Neftçi 55%, Qarabağ 48%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Qarabağ has higher xG: 1.97 vs 1.66. Neftçi: 12.8 shots per match, Qarabağ: 15.5.
Match halves
Neftçi: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 1.06. Qarabağ: half-time lead 42%, second-half goals 1.27.
Goals by minute
Neftçi: 76-90+ (14 goals). Qarabağ: 76-90+ (20 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premyer Liqası: 2.58 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
2 H2H matches: 1-0-1. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Match description
Season-long Qarabağ is stronger: 17 wins and 55 goals versus Neftçi’s 11 wins and 45 goals, with a superior goal differential 55–19 vs 45–25 and higher away xG (2.00 vs 1.82). However, current form decisively favors the hosts — Neftçi have scored 15 goals in their last 5 matches (3.0 per match), are on a run of 4 wins and a draw and average 2.6 points per match in that period, while Qarabağ have 10 goals and average 1.0 point per match. Chance quality slightly favors the visitors: Qarabağ average 15.92 shots and 5.83 on target per match with 64% possession, versus 14.15 shots, 5.54 on target and 59% for Neftçi. Defensively the visitors are a bit more stable away (0.83 conceded per match vs 0.92 for the hosts) and less likely to be shut out (17% clean-sheet-less matches for Qarabağ vs 38% for Neftçi). Considering Neftçi’s high form against Qarabağ’s season-long edge, I slightly favor the hosts.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Neftçi | Qarabağ | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Neftçi is 50% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / match - Neftçi · 2 pts / match - Qarabağ
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Qarabağ is 24% better for: goals scored per match.
1.73 goals / match - Neftçi · 2.15 goals / match - Qarabağ
Qarabağ is 18% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.97 goals / match - Neftçi · 0.82 goals / match - Qarabağ
Neftçi scores in 73% of matches (24 of 33 matches), while Qarabağ keeps a clean sheet in 42% (14 of 33 matches).
Qarabağ scores in 82% of matches (27 of 33 matches), while Neftçi keeps a clean sheet in 39% (13 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Neftçi
Over / Under — Qarabağ
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Qarabağ is 13% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.48 pts / match - Neftçi · 1.67 pts / match - Qarabağ
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Neftçi - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Qarabağ - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 42% of matches and wins 64%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +7 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 3.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 80% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (20 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +13 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Neftçi
Qarabağ
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premyer Liqası).
Teams vs league
| Neftçi | Liga | Qarabağ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.70 | 2.58 | ▲ 2.97 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 48% | 46% | • 45% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 55% | 48% | • 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 39% | 31% | ▲ 42% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 58% | 65% | ▲ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | • 73% | 74% | ▲ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Neftçi 1 - 0 - 1 Qarabağ. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Neftçi vs Qarabağ?
The Premyer Liqası match finished Neftçi 1:5 Qarabağ. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Neftçi and Qarabağ?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Neftçi won 1, Qarabağ won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Neftçi vs Qarabağ?
Neftçi score 1.73 goals per game on average and Qarabağ 2.15. The Premyer Liqası average is 2.58 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 48% of Neftçi's matches and 45% of Qarabağ's.
What form are Neftçi and Qarabağ in?
Over the last 5 games Neftçi have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and Qarabağ 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Neftçi vs Qarabağ?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.