Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopia Bunna: match statistics
Negele Arsi Ketema displays solid home form with a 50% win rate and an impressive record of 50% clean sheets at their own stadium. The hosts have earned 10 points in their last 5 matches (2 PPG), while Ethiopia Bunna has managed only 5 points (1 PPG) in the same period. Particularly concerning for the visitors is their high away FTS% of 44%, indicating difficulties in scoring. The positive goal difference of the hosts (+5) in home matches and their advantage in effectiveness (xG 1.06 vs 0.97) further support their chances of winning. Despite better possession (58%), Ethiopia Bunna fails to translate this into efficiency, which, combined with the defensive solidity of the hosts (averaging 0.6 goals conceded), points towards a victory for Negele Arsi Ketema, although a draw is also a realistic scenario.
Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopia Bunna: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Negele Arsi Ketema played against Ethiopia Bunna in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The game was played on February 26, 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Recent form
Negele Arsi Ketema has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.00 points per game. Ethiopia Bunna has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 1.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Negele Arsi Ketema scores 1.10 goals per game and allows 0.65. Ethiopia Bunna scores 0.84 and allows 1.05. Games in this league average 1.74 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 35% of Negele Arsi Ketema's games and 42% of Ethiopia Bunna's. The Over 2.5 rates are 25% and 32%, compared with league averages of 41% for BTTS and 26% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Negele Arsi Ketema has the higher season xG average, 1.15 to 1.14 per game. Negele Arsi Ketema takes 7.0 shots per game, while Ethiopia Bunna takes 7.2.
First-half and second-half trends
Negele Arsi Ketema leads at halftime in 35% of its games and scores 0.55 goals per game after halftime. Ethiopia Bunna leads at halftime in 26% and scores 0.32 after halftime.
When the teams score
Negele Arsi Ketema's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (7 goals). For Ethiopia Bunna, it is minutes 31-45+ (5 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ethiopia Premier League games average 1.74 goals. Both teams score in 41% of games, and 26% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Negele Arsi Ketema displays solid home form with a 50% win rate and an impressive record of 50% clean sheets at their own stadium. The hosts have earned 10 points in their last 5 matches (2 PPG), while Ethiopia Bunna has managed only 5 points (1 PPG) in the same period. Particularly concerning for the visitors is their high away FTS% of 44%, indicating difficulties in scoring. The positive goal difference of the hosts (+5) in home matches and their advantage in effectiveness (xG 1.06 vs 0.97) further support their chances of winning. Despite better possession (58%), Ethiopia Bunna fails to translate this into efficiency, which, combined with the defensive solidity of the hosts (averaging 0.6 goals conceded), points towards a victory for Negele Arsi Ketema, although a draw is also a realistic scenario.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Ethiopia Bunna | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 44% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 100% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1 pts / game - Ethiopia Bunna
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 31% better for: goals scored per game.
1.1 goals / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.84 goals / game - Ethiopia Bunna
Negele Arsi Ketema is 62% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.65 goals / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.05 goals / game - Ethiopia Bunna
Negele Arsi Ketema scores in 75% of games (15 of 20 games), while Ethiopia Bunna keeps a clean sheet in 32% (6 of 19 games).
Ethiopia Bunna scores in 63% of games (12 of 19 games), while Negele Arsi Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 50% (10 of 20 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Negele Arsi Ketema
Over / Under - Ethiopia Bunna
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.65 pts / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.37 pts / game - Ethiopia Bunna
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Negele Arsi Ketema - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 35% of games and wins 50%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Ethiopia Bunna - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 26% of games and wins 32%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -4 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Negele Arsi Ketema
Ethiopia Bunna
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Liga | Ethiopia Bunna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 1.75 | 1.74 | ▲ 1.89 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 35% | 41% | • 42% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 25% | 26% | ▲ 32% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 41% | ▼ 32% |
| Goal before half-time | • 55% | 54% | ▲ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 65% | 56% | ▲ 63% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Away team
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Ethiopia BunnaGoalRamkel James
Head-to-head
Record from Negele Arsi Ketema's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against Ethiopia Bunna. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopia Bunna?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Negele Arsi Ketema 0:1 Ethiopia Bunna. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopia Bunna?
Negele Arsi Ketema score 1.10 goals per game on average and Ethiopia Bunna 0.84. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.74 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 26% of games. Both teams score in 35% of Negele Arsi Ketema's matches and 42% of Ethiopia Bunna's.
What form are Negele Arsi Ketema and Ethiopia Bunna in?
Over the last 5 games Negele Arsi Ketema have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Ethiopia Bunna 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopia Bunna?
The statistical background for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopia Bunna — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.