Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mebrat Hayl: match statistics
Negele Arsi Ketema sits higher in the table (3rd place) and displays solid form at home, winning 45% of their home matches with only an 18% loss rate. The hosts boast a positive goal difference at their stadium (+4) and keep clean sheets in 45% of matches, which proves their good defensive organization. Mebrat Hayl, as the away team, performs significantly worse, winning only 18% of away games and failing to score in a staggering 64% of their road fixtures. Despite the visitors' better form over their last five overall matches (1.6 PPG), their offensive weakness away from home (0.64 goals on average) and the hosts' home advantage point towards a victory for Negele Arsi Ketema. Considering both teams' tendency to draw (36% for the hosts, 45% for the visitors), splitting the points is not out of the question; however, home-field advantage should give the hosts the crucial edge.
Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mebrat Hayl: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Negele Arsi Ketema played against Mebrat Hayl in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The game was played on March 15, 2026. Final score: 0:2.
Recent form
Negele Arsi Ketema has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 1.20 points per game. Mebrat Hayl has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 1.60 points per game.
Scoring records
Negele Arsi Ketema scores 0.96 goals per game and allows 0.61. Mebrat Hayl scores 0.74 and allows 0.57. Games in this league average 1.78 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 30% of Negele Arsi Ketema's games and 26% of Mebrat Hayl's. The Over 2.5 rates are 22% and 22%, compared with league averages of 41% for BTTS and 27% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Negele Arsi Ketema has the higher season xG average, 1.15 to 1.14 per game. Negele Arsi Ketema takes 6.8 shots per game, while Mebrat Hayl takes 7.2.
First-half and second-half trends
Negele Arsi Ketema leads at halftime in 30% of its games and scores 0.48 goals per game after halftime. Mebrat Hayl leads at halftime in 13% and scores 0.52 after halftime.
When the teams score
Negele Arsi Ketema's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (7 goals). For Mebrat Hayl, it is minutes 46-60 (8 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ethiopia Premier League games average 1.78 goals. Both teams score in 41% of games, and 27% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Negele Arsi Ketema sits higher in the table (3rd place) and displays solid form at home, winning 45% of their home matches with only an 18% loss rate. The hosts boast a positive goal difference at their stadium (+4) and keep clean sheets in 45% of matches, which proves their good defensive organization. Mebrat Hayl, as the away team, performs significantly worse, winning only 18% of away games and failing to score in a staggering 64% of their road fixtures. Despite the visitors' better form over their last five overall matches (1.6 PPG), their offensive weakness away from home (0.64 goals on average) and the hosts' home advantage point towards a victory for Negele Arsi Ketema. Considering both teams' tendency to draw (36% for the hosts, 45% for the visitors), splitting the points is not out of the question; however, home-field advantage should give the hosts the crucial edge.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Mebrat Hayl | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 27% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Mebrat Hayl is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.6 pts / game - Mebrat Hayl
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 30% better for: goals scored per game.
0.96 goals / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.74 goals / game - Mebrat Hayl
Mebrat Hayl is 7% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.61 goals / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.57 goals / game - Mebrat Hayl
Negele Arsi Ketema scores in 65% of games (15 of 23 meczów), while Mebrat Hayl keeps a clean sheet in 57% (13 of 23 meczów).
Mebrat Hayl scores in 43% of games (10 of 23 meczów), while Negele Arsi Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 52% (12 of 23 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Negele Arsi Ketema
Over / Under - Mebrat Hayl
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 39% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.57 pts / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.13 pts / game - Mebrat Hayl
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Negele Arsi Ketema - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 30% of games and wins 43%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Mebrat Hayl - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 13% of games and wins 35%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Negele Arsi Ketema
Mebrat Hayl
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Liga | Mebrat Hayl | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 1.57 | 1.78 | ▼ 1.30 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 30% | 41% | ▼ 26% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 22% | 27% | ▼ 22% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 52% | 40% | ▲ 57% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 48% | 54% | ▼ 26% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 61% | 58% | ▲ 61% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Record from Negele Arsi Ketema's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against Mebrat Hayl. Games average 0.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mebrat Hayl?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Negele Arsi Ketema 0:2 Mebrat Hayl. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mebrat Hayl?
Negele Arsi Ketema score 0.96 goals per game on average and Mebrat Hayl 0.74. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 27% of games. Both teams score in 30% of Negele Arsi Ketema's matches and 26% of Mebrat Hayl's.
What form are Negele Arsi Ketema and Mebrat Hayl in?
Over the last 5 games Negele Arsi Ketema have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Mebrat Hayl 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mebrat Hayl?
The statistical background for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mebrat Hayl — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.