Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelakeya: match statistics
Mekelakeya displays significantly better away form with a 50% win rate and zero away defeats this season, whereas Negele Arsi Ketema wins only 33% of home matches. The visitors hold a decisive advantage in offensive efficiency, scoring an average of 2 goals per away match with a 22% conversion rate, while the hosts average just 1 goal at home with a 13% conversion rate. Mekelakeya also dominates possession (58% vs 46%) and boasts a superior xG record (1.35 vs 1.15), indicating higher quality chance creation. Recent form also favors the visitors – Negele collects points at a lower rate (2 PPG vs Mekelakeya's potential), and the guests never leave the pitch without scoring in away games (0% FTS). A goal difference of +6 for the visitors in away matches compared to just +1 for the hosts at home further confirms Mekelakeya's advantage in this clash.
Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelakeya: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Negele Arsi Ketema played against Mekelakeya in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The game was played on January 4, 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Recent form
Negele Arsi Ketema has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.00 points per game. Mekelakeya has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, with 1.20 points per game.
Scoring records
Negele Arsi Ketema scores 1.08 goals per game and allows 0.75. Mekelakeya scores 1.38 and allows 0.85. Games in this league average 1.76 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 42% of Negele Arsi Ketema's games and 54% of Mekelakeya's. The Over 2.5 rates are 42% and 38%, compared with league averages of 44% for BTTS and 28% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Mekelakeya has the higher season xG average, 1.46 to 1.18 per game. Negele Arsi Ketema takes 7.9 shots per game, while Mekelakeya takes 9.6.
First-half and second-half trends
Negele Arsi Ketema leads at halftime in 17% of its games and scores 0.67 goals per game after halftime. Mekelakeya leads at halftime in 46% and scores 0.31 after halftime.
When the teams score
Negele Arsi Ketema's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (5 goals). For Mekelakeya, it is minutes 31-45+ (7 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ethiopia Premier League games average 1.76 goals. Both teams score in 44% of games, and 28% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Mekelakeya displays significantly better away form with a 50% win rate and zero away defeats this season, whereas Negele Arsi Ketema wins only 33% of home matches. The visitors hold a decisive advantage in offensive efficiency, scoring an average of 2 goals per away match with a 22% conversion rate, while the hosts average just 1 goal at home with a 13% conversion rate. Mekelakeya also dominates possession (58% vs 46%) and boasts a superior xG record (1.35 vs 1.15), indicating higher quality chance creation. Recent form also favors the visitors – Negele collects points at a lower rate (2 PPG vs Mekelakeya's potential), and the guests never leave the pitch without scoring in away games (0% FTS). A goal difference of +6 for the visitors in away matches compared to just +1 for the hosts at home further confirms Mekelakeya's advantage in this clash.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Mekelakeya | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 67% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.2 pts / game - Mekelakeya
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mekelakeya is 28% better for: goals scored per game.
1.08 goals / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.38 goals / game - Mekelakeya
Negele Arsi Ketema is 13% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.75 goals / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.85 goals / game - Mekelakeya
Negele Arsi Ketema scores in 67% of games (8 of 12 meczów), while Mekelakeya keeps a clean sheet in 38% (5 of 13 meczów).
Mekelakeya scores in 77% of games (10 of 13 meczów), while Negele Arsi Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 42% (5 of 12 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Negele Arsi Ketema
Over / Under - Mekelakeya
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mekelakeya is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.77 pts / game - Mekelakeya
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Negele Arsi Ketema - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 17% of games and wins 42%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Mekelakeya - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 46% of games and wins 38%. Usually protects a halftime lead through the final whistle.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Negele Arsi Ketema
Mekelakeya
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Liga | Mekelakeya | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 1.83 | 1.76 | ▲ 2.23 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 42% | 44% | ▲ 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 42% | 28% | ▲ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 42% | 38% | • 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 42% | 57% | ▲ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 67% | 60% | ▲ 62% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
FAQ
What was the result of Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelakeya?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Negele Arsi Ketema 2:0 Mekelakeya. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelakeya?
Negele Arsi Ketema score 1.08 goals per game on average and Mekelakeya 1.38. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.76 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 42% of Negele Arsi Ketema's matches and 54% of Mekelakeya's.
What form are Negele Arsi Ketema and Mekelakeya in?
Over the last 5 games Negele Arsi Ketema have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Mekelakeya 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelakeya?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.