Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelle Kenema: match statistics
Negele Arsi Ketema presents significantly better home form with a 44% win rate and only 11% losses at their own stadium. The hosts have earned 10 points (2 PPG) in the last five matches, while Mekelle Kenema achieved only 7 points (1.4 PPG). The goal difference in the guests' away matches is zero, and their high FTS% at the level of 56% in away matches indicates significant offensive problems. Negele Arsi Ketema scores an average of 1.11 goals per match at home with an xG of 1.06, which combined with a solid defense (0.67 goals conceded on average) gives them the edge. Mekelle Kenema has only 22% wins away and sits in 16th place in the table, which further speaks for the hosts, though the high number of draws for the guests (44%) suggests the possibility of a points split.
Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelle Kenema: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Negele Arsi Ketema played against Mekelle Kenema in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The game was played on February 5, 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
Negele Arsi Ketema has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.00 points per game. Mekelle Kenema has 1 win, 4 draws and 0 losses, with 1.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Negele Arsi Ketema scores 1.11 goals per game and allows 0.67. Mekelle Kenema scores 0.94 and allows 1.06. Games in this league average 1.70 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 33% of Negele Arsi Ketema's games and 56% of Mekelle Kenema's. The Over 2.5 rates are 28% and 39%, compared with league averages of 41% for BTTS and 26% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Mekelle Kenema has the higher season xG average, 1.24 to 1.15 per game. Negele Arsi Ketema takes 7.1 shots per game, while Mekelle Kenema takes 6.8.
First-half and second-half trends
Negele Arsi Ketema leads at halftime in 28% of its games and scores 0.61 goals per game after halftime. Mekelle Kenema leads at halftime in 33% and scores 0.33 after halftime.
When the teams score
Negele Arsi Ketema's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (7 goals). For Mekelle Kenema, it is minutes 16-30 (6 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ethiopia Premier League games average 1.70 goals. Both teams score in 41% of games, and 26% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Negele Arsi Ketema presents significantly better home form with a 44% win rate and only 11% losses at their own stadium. The hosts have earned 10 points (2 PPG) in the last five matches, while Mekelle Kenema achieved only 7 points (1.4 PPG). The goal difference in the guests' away matches is zero, and their high FTS% at the level of 56% in away matches indicates significant offensive problems. Negele Arsi Ketema scores an average of 1.11 goals per match at home with an xG of 1.06, which combined with a solid defense (0.67 goals conceded on average) gives them the edge. Mekelle Kenema has only 22% wins away and sits in 16th place in the table, which further speaks for the hosts, though the high number of draws for the guests (44%) suggests the possibility of a points split.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Mekelle Kenema | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 46% | 47% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 43% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.4 pts / game - Mekelle Kenema
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 18% better for: goals scored per game.
1.11 goals / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 0.94 goals / game - Mekelle Kenema
Negele Arsi Ketema is 58% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.67 goals / game - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.06 goals / game - Mekelle Kenema
Negele Arsi Ketema scores in 72% of games (13 of 18 meczów), while Mekelle Kenema keeps a clean sheet in 33% (6 of 18 meczów).
Mekelle Kenema scores in 67% of games (12 of 18 meczów), while Negele Arsi Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 50% (9 of 18 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Negele Arsi Ketema
Over / Under - Mekelle Kenema
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Negele Arsi Ketema - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 28% of games and wins 50%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Mekelle Kenema - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 17%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Negele Arsi Ketema
Mekelle Kenema
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Liga | Mekelle Kenema | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 1.78 | 1.70 | ▲ 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 41% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 28% | 26% | ▲ 39% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 41% | ▼ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 54% | ▲ 72% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 67% | 56% | • 56% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
FAQ
What was the result of Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelle Kenema?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Negele Arsi Ketema 1:0 Mekelle Kenema. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelle Kenema?
Negele Arsi Ketema score 1.11 goals per game on average and Mekelle Kenema 0.94. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.70 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 26% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Negele Arsi Ketema's matches and 56% of Mekelle Kenema's.
What form are Negele Arsi Ketema and Mekelle Kenema in?
Over the last 5 games Negele Arsi Ketema have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Mekelle Kenema 1-4-0 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelle Kenema?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Mekelle Kenema: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.