Neom SC vs Al Shabab: match statistics

Neom SC sit 8th in the table while Al Shabab are 13th, which already indicates a home advantage. In the last 5 matches Neom have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, averaging 1.6 points per game and scoring 9 goals, whereas Al Shabab over the same period have 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, just 0.6 points per game and 7 goals. At Neom’s ground they average 4.8 shots on target and 52% possession, while Al Shabab away average 3.73 shots on target, 45% possession, 47% draws and fail to score in 47% of away matches. Expected chances are similar (xG Neom 1.37 vs xG Al Shabab 1.27), however the visitors have conceded 13 goals in the last 5 matches versus 8 for Neom and have 52 goals conceded in the season compared to 44 for the hosts; on average Al Shabab concede 1.2 goals away versus 1.47 conceded by Neom at home. Given Neom’s higher points per game (1.6 vs 0.6), greater number of shots on target and the low rate of goalless matches for the hosts (13% vs 47%), I predict a Neom SC victory.

Neom has a seasonal BTTS rate of 75% versus 47% for Al Shabab, and in the last 5 matches the rates are 80% for Neom and 100% for Al Shabab, which strongly supports both teams scoring. Seasonally Neom averages 1.56 goals for and 2.13 against, while Al Shabab averages 1.00 for and 1.20 against; however in the last 5 matches Al Shabab concedes as much as 2.6 goals per game and Neom 1.6, so both teams are prone to conceding. In xG terms Neom has 1.64 xG per match (last 5: 1.97) versus 1.27 xG (last 5: 1.49) for Al Shabab, and Neom records on average 5.5 shots on target compared to 3.73 for Al Shabab — chance creation favors goals at both ends. Additionally the league BTTS percentage is 59% with low clean sheet rates of 25% and 20%, therefore the most probable and strongest signal from the data is BTTS - Yes (estimated 78%).

The strongest signal is Over 1.5: Neom SC has Over 1.5 in 81% of matches, Al Shabab in 73%, and the league average is 3.05 goals per game — therefore I assess the probability of Over 1.5 at 90%. xG comparison shows the home attack 1.64 versus the away 1.27, with xG against 1.31 (Neom) and 1.36 (Al Shabab); a simple average of opponent attack and defense yields expected 1.52 goals for the home side and 1.29 for the visitors, totaling 2.81. The 2.5 line is moderately favored: seasonally Neom has Over 2.5 in 56% of matches, Al Shabab 27%, but in the last 5 meetings both teams produced Over 2.5 in 60% and Al Shabab conceded on average 2.6 goals, hence I estimate Over 2.5 at 63%. The 3.5 line is less likely because the expected 2.81 goals is below 3.5; although Neom has Over 3.5 in 50% of seasonal games, Al Shabab only 27%, so I give Over 3.5 a 35% probability and Under 65%. Additionally, the home side records BTTS in 75% seasonally and 80% in the last 5, while the visitors have 47% seasonally and 100% in the last 5, which reinforces the minimum-two-goal scenario and confirms the recommendation to play Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Neom win at full-time (X/1). Neom are level at the break in 31% of matches, while Al Shabab have been level at half-time in 60% of their away games and have not led at the break in any away match (0% leads), which clearly boosts the probability of a half-time draw. Second-half metrics favor the home side: Neom have a higher xG (1.64 vs. 1.27 for Al Shabab), more on-target shots on average (5.5 vs. 3.73) and a higher average home points return (1.19 vs. 0.87 for the visitors); additionally, in the last five matches Neom have won 40% compared to 0% wins for Al Shabab. More goals are also scored after the break in home matches (on average 1.75 second-half goals vs. 1.07 in away matches), and Neom’s last five games have featured more than 0.5 second-half goals in 100% of cases, which raises the chance of a turnaround after half-time, despite Neom conceding an average of 2.13 goals per match.