New England Revolution vs Nashville SC: match statistics

The favorites are hosts New England Revolution, who have won all home matches (100% wins) and average 2.5 goals per game. At home they register 11.67 shots with 4.83 on target and a high conversion rate of 21%, translating to 9 goals in the last 5 matches and an average of 2 points per game in that period. Nashville on the road score only 0.83 goals per game, have 6 goals in their last 5 matches and failed to score in 50% of away fixtures, with a low conversion of 8% (10.17 shots, 4.0 on target). Defensively the visitors are solid (on average 0.33 goals conceded away and 67% clean sheets), but their away xG is 1.19 versus an actual 0.83 goals, while the hosts have a home xG of 1.38 and convert it at a 2.5 goals level, which demonstrates New England’s superior finishing. Considering 100% home wins, higher conversion (21% vs 8%), better form in the last 5 matches (2 points per game vs 1 point) and the fact Nashville fails to score in half of away games, I tip a home win.

New England has a seasonal BTTS rate of 80% and 80% in the last 5 matches, with 9 goals scored and 7 conceded in those five games (avg 1.8 and 1.4), indicating open home matches. Nashville, however, has a seasonal BTTS of only 17% and keeps a clean sheet in 67% of games with an average conceded goals of 0.33 per match, which strongly favors No Goal. New England’s offensive metrics support a BTTS scenario: seasonally 3.6 goals per game, xG 1.78, 7.2 shots on target and a conversion rate of 23% versus Nashville — 4.0 shots on target and 8% conversion. In the last 5 matches Nashville has 6 scored and 6 conceded (1.2 and 1.2) and BTTS 40% in that period, meaning they’ve been conceding more recently than the season 17% suggests. Considering the contrast of 80% vs 17% seasonal BTTS, but also Nashville’s 67% clean sheets and the league average BTTS of 59%, I give a moderate edge to BTTS - Yes — 60% vs 40%.

Based on xG I expect about 2.59 goals in the match: New England’s attacking xG is 1.78 while Nashville’s defensive xG is 1.19, yielding 1.49 expected goals for the home side; Nashville’s xG 1.19 against New England’s conceded xG 1.01 gives 1.10 for the visitors. New England at home averages 3.6 goals scored, 15.4 shots and 7.2 shots on target with a 23% conversion rate, whereas Nashville has 0.83 goals, 10.17 shots and an 8% conversion — this strengthens the home scoring potential. In the last 5 games New England scored 9 goals (1.8 per game) and Nashville 6 goals (1.2 per game), with the league average at 3.21 goals per match; New England has 100% of home games over 2.5. Conversely, Nashville has 67% clean sheets on the road and only 17% away BTTS, which limits the likelihood of very high totals (Over 3.5). Therefore the strongest signal is an Over at the 1.5 line: the high home scoring output (3.6) and the combined xG of 2.59 suggest a strong probability of at least 2 goals.

New England has a clear first-half advantage: they led at the break in 4 of 5 matches (80%) and scored 13 goals before halftime, averaging 1.8 first-half goals, whereas Nashville has only 2 first-half goals and a 0.17 average. Season-long figures confirm the hosts’ dominance — 3.6 goals per game versus 0.83 for the visitors, xG 1.78 vs 1.19, and 7.2 shots on target vs 4.0, with shooting efficiency of 23% compared to 8%, which increases New England’s chance of maintaining a lead at the break. Nashville, however, possesses a solid away defense: 67% clean sheets and an average of 0.33 goals conceded per away game, so they may limit the margin of defeat. Therefore I assign a 45% probability to 1/1 (lead at the break and home win), 13% to 1/X and 15% to X/1 as the main alternatives. The selection of 1/1 is based on the hosts leading at the break in 80% of home matches and having an 80% win rate on the season, and their advantage in xG and shot efficiency (1.78 and 23% vs 1.19 and 8%) makes holding the lead the most likely scenario.