New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union: match statistics

New England Revolution are clear favorites: at home they have a 100% win rate, score an average of 2.6 goals per game and concede only 0.4, with a home goal difference of +11. Philadelphia Union away record is 1 win, 3 draws and 7 losses, they score 1.17 goals on average, concede 2.0 goals and have recorded zero clean sheets (0% clean sheets). The hosts average 5.4 shots on target per game with a conversion rate of 22%, while Union have 3.67 shots on target and only 9% conversion, which translates to 2.6 vs 1.17 average goals per game. Although the visitors’ average xG is 1.48 versus the hosts’ 1.44, the visitors do not convert their chances (33% of matches without scoring) and average 1.2 points in the last 5 matches, while Revolution average 2.0 points in their last five (forms 1-3-1 vs 3-1-1). Considering the 100% home wins, +11 home goal difference and the visitors’ poor finishing and defense on the road (9% conversion and 2.0 conceded per game), I forecast a New England win and assess their chances at 75%, a draw 15% and a Philadelphia win 10%.

I indicate BTTS - Yes as more likely (70% vs 30%) because both teams’ offensive and defensive profiles favor both teams scoring. Philadelphia has a seasonal BTTS of 67% and concedes on average 2.0 goals away, increasing the likelihood of a home goal. New England’s seasonal home goals average is 0.4, but their xG_for is 1.69 and they have scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches (1.8 avg), indicating recent improvement in finishing. Additionally, both teams generate a similar number of shots and shots on target (14.8 vs 13.33 shots and 3.8 vs 3.67 SoT), and the league average BTTS is 57%, which supports the both-teams-to-score scenario.

Based on opponents’ average xG and defensive profiles, I estimate 1.38 expected goals for New England (attack xG 1.69 vs opposition xG conceded to Philadelphia 1.06) and 1.27 for Philadelphia (attack xG 1.48 vs xG conceded to New England 1.07), totaling 2.65 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.65 gives ~74% probability for Over 1.5 goals, ~49% for Over 2.5 and ~28% for Over 3.5, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal. Additionally, Philadelphia has season Over15 at 83% and BTTS 67%, while New England has season Over15 40% and BTTS 40%, so Philadelphia’s style largely drives the likelihood of at least two goals. Although New England officially scores only 0.4 goals on average with a low conversion rate of 3%, their xG 1.69 and 14.8 shots per game suggest chance creation, and Philadelphia’s 1.17 average goals with a 9% conversion maintains offensive pressure. Considering the expected 2.65 goals, the league average 3.18 and the above percentages, I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the best and most reliable option.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). The home side were drawing at the break in 80% of cases in the data (drawingAtHT_home = 80.0), and first-half goals averages are low: 0.2 for New England and 0.17 for Philadelphia (scoredAVGHT_home = 0.2 vs scoredAVGHT_away = 0.17), which favors HT draws. In the second half the hosts are clearly stronger in recent form over the last five matches: 60% wins in the last 5 (last5_winPercentage_overall_home = 60.0) and an average of 1.4 goals scored after the break in those five (last5_scored_2hg_avg_overall_home = 1.4) versus 0.8 for the visitors (last5_scored_2hg_avg_overall_away = 0.8). Additionally, the away team concedes an average of 2.0 goals per match (seasonConcededAVG_away = 2.0) and has only a 20% win rate in the last five (last5_winPercentage_overall_away = 20.0), which increases the likelihood of a home-side advantage after the break.