New York City II vs Chattanooga FC: match statistics

I back the home win (1). New York City II are on a solid run — 11 goals and 4 wins in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.4 points per game, while Chattanooga have 14 goals and 3 wins in the same period (2.0 points per game). At home the hosts average 1.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per match; visitors on the road average 2.00 scored and 2.29 conceded, so Chattanooga’s attack is more productive but their defense is more vulnerable. Chattanooga attempts 13 shots with 5.0 on target and xG 1.51 away, versus the hosts’ 9.43 shots, 3.71 on target and xG 1.19; despite more chances for the visitors, the hosts’ conversion rate of 18% versus the visitors’ 15% narrows that gap. Additionally, the hosts win 57% of home matches, lose 29% and keep 14% clean sheets, whereas Chattanooga have 29% away wins, 43% away losses and 0% clean sheets on the road. Therefore I estimate probabilities as: home 55%, draw 20%, away 25%.

The 'Both Teams To Score' scenario is supported by strong signals: Chattanooga has a seasonal BTTS of 86% versus New York City II's 43%, with the league average at 62%. Chattanooga concedes 2.29 goals per game on the season (2.0 in last 5) and scores 2.0 on the season (2.8 in last 5), while New York City II scores 2.14 and concedes 1.29 on the season (last 5: 2.2 scored and 1.4 conceded). xG and shot metrics confirm mutual chance creation: the hosts have xG 1.77 and average 14.43 shots (5.71 on target), the visitors xG 1.51 and 13.0 shots (5.0 on target); with a 15% conversion this implies expected goals around ~2.2 for the hosts and ~2.0 for the visitors. Crucially, the visitors have 0% clean sheets away, which practically guarantees the hosts will find the net, and both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches. As a result I assign 78% to BTTS - Yes and 22% to No, because the visitors' very high seasonal BTTS of 86%, their average 2.29 goals conceded and lack of clean sheets outweigh the hosts' lower seasonal BTTS of 43%.

Seasonal stats indicate significant goal potential: New York City II averages 2.14 goals/match, Chattanooga 2.00, and the league records 3.25 goals per game. xG is 1.77 for the home side and 1.51 for the away; accounting for form over the last 5 matches (xG last 5: 1.29 for NYCI, 1.96 for Chattanooga) I project 1.67 expected goals for the hosts and 1.60 for the visitors, totaling ~3.27 goals. Both teams have 86% of matches over 1.5 goals; additionally NYCI has 57% of games over 2.5, Chattanooga 86%, and in the last 5 matches the hosts scored 11 goals (2.2 avg.), the visitors 14 goals (2.8 avg.). A Poisson model with 3.27 expected goals yields ~84% chance of >1.5 and ~63% for >2.5; after weighting with historical percentages I give 85% for Over 1.5 and about 67% for Over 2.5. The strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (pick: Over 1.5), while Over 3.5 is less certain (~48%).

I select the X/1 scenario (draw at Half-Time, home win at Full-Time) as the strongest signal. The home team holds a clear seasonal advantage: they win 71% of matches and score an average of 2.14 goals per game versus 2.00 for the visitors, and their xG is 1.77 compared to Chattanooga’s 1.51, indicating they create more chances. Half-Time data is balanced — the home side scores on average 1.00 and concedes 0.43 in the first half, while the visitors score 1.14 and concede 0.71 — but in the last five matches the visitors led at the break in 80% of cases, so I expect an even (drawn) first half. After the break I favor the home team: they have scored 5 goals in the 46–60 minute interval, collect an average of 1.86 points in second halves and in 86% of their second halves more than 1.5 goals are scored, and they also average 14.43 shots with 5.71 on target, which gives them the edge to produce a turnaround after Half-Time. Altogether this points to a draw after 45 minutes and a New York City II victory after 90 minutes.