Niroye Zamini vs Pars Jam Bushehr: match statistics

Pars Jam Bushehr is the favorite in this match: they sit 3rd in the table while Niroye Zamini are 13th. This season the visitors have 13 wins, 12 draws and 6 losses versus the hosts' 7 wins, 11 draws and 12 losses. In their last 5 matches Pars Jam remain unbeaten (2 wins, 3 draws), averaging 1.8 points per game, whereas Niroye have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, averaging 0.8 points per game; in that span the visitors scored 5 goals and the hosts 3. The visitors are more efficient in front of goal: 35 goals in the season vs the hosts' 24 and a conversion rate of 20% vs 14%, therefore despite a lower shots-per-game average (5.63 vs 8.67) Pars Jam average 1.2 away goals per match while the hosts average 0.93 at home. The hosts, however, possess a defensive edge at home — conceding 0.6 goals per game and keeping a clean sheet in 53% of home matches, with home xG 1.21 against xG conceded 1.09, which limits the scope of defeat. Considering league position, superior form and the much lower share of matches without scoring for the visitors (13% of away matches without a goal vs 53% of the hosts' home matches), I project a Pars Jam win with 55% probability, a draw 25% and a home win 20%.

Seasonal statistics favor No Goal/Both Teams Not To Score: the home side has a seasonal BTTS rate of 25% and keeps a clean sheet in 63% of matches, while in the league BTTS occurs in 30% of fixtures and as many as 93% of matches finish with a clean sheet for one of the teams. In the last 5 matches the hosts had 0% BTTS (0 of 5) and scored 3 goals total (avg. 0.6), and seasonally they concede only 0.56 goals per match, indicating strong ability to limit conceded chances. The visitors have a seasonal BTTS rate of 53% and score on average 1.2 goals per match (35 goals in the season), however their defensive form is robust — in the last 5 matches they have conceded only 1 goal (avg. 0.2 per match). The comparison shows that although the away team more often appears in Goal/Goal matches (53% vs 25%), the combination of 63% clean sheets for the hosts, 0% BTTS in their last 5 and the visitors conceding just 1 goal in their last 5 points toward a scenario where at least one team fails to score. Therefore I assign 75% probability to No Goal and 25% to BTTS - Yes — this is the strongest signal from the available numbers.

Niroye Zamini scores on average 1.06 goals per match and concedes 0.56, while Pars Jam Bushehr averages 1.20 goals scored and concedes 0.80. Averaging the home attack with the opponent’s defense yields about 0.93 goals for Niroye, and averaging Pars Jam’s attack with the home defense gives ~0.88 goals, totaling ~1.81 goals in the match. Season rates for Over 2.5 are only 25% for Niroye and 27% for Pars Jam (league average 21%), which combined with the expected 1.81 goals strongly argues against Over 2.5. The home side has 63% clean sheets and only 25% of matches with both teams scoring, while Pars Jam has 53% BTTS — this increases BTTS uncertainty but is insufficient to push the probability above 2.5. Therefore I recommend Under 2.5 as the strongest signal (estimated ~74% chance), with a concurrent moderate probability for Over 1.5 (~60%).

Pars Jam performs better statistically: average goals 1.20 per match versus Niroye’s 1.06 and a win rate of 47% versus 38% for the home side. The visitors led at the break in 7 matches (50% of their games), while Niroye led at the break in 4 (25%); on average Pars Jam scores 0.64 goals by half-time vs the home side’s 0.38 and concedes only 0.21 vs 0.38 for the hosts. The home team posts stronger second-half numbers (scoring on average 0.69 and conceding 0.19 after the break), which increases the probability of a turnaround, however the overall season balance favors Pars Jam (seasonal average goals 2.0 vs 1.63 and 47% away wins vs 38% home wins). The strongest signal is Pars Jam leading at half-time (50%) combined with the higher away win percentage, therefore the 2/2 scenario is most likely (34%); realistic alternatives are a draw at half-time and an away win (X/2 22%) and the visitors leading at half-time with a full-time draw (2/X 14%), especially given the high proportions of clean halves at half-time: 75% for the home side and 79% for the visitors.