Niroye Zamini vs Sanat Naft: match statistics

The favorites are the visitors — Sanat Naft: they sit 4th in the table versus 13th-place Niroye Zamini, with 15 wins this season compared to the home side’s 7 wins and a superior goal difference 35–21 versus 25–29. The gap in recent form is clear: Sanat Naft in their last five matches has 3 wins and 2 draws, scoring 8 and conceding 3 (points average 2.2), while Niroye Zamini has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses with a 4:7 record and a points average of 0.8. At home the hosts attempt more shots (8.67 per match) and have a higher conversion rate (14%), translating to 0.88 goals per home match and xG For 1.21; however Sanat Naft have a similar number of shots on target (4.33 vs 4.11) and lower average goals conceded away (0.69 goals conceded on the road with xG Against 1.09). Both teams have a high share of matches without scoring (56% home/away) and a low total goals per match (Niroye 1.63 at home vs Sanat Naft 1.5 away), which points to a low-scoring game. Considering the table advantage, superior goal difference and form (points average 2.2 vs 0.8), I tip the visitors to win (2) — hosts 20%, draw 20%, visitors 60%.

I predict no BTTS (No) as the more likely outcome. Seasonal BTTS rates are 47% for Niroye and 31% for Sanat Naft (average ~39%), indicating both teams do not regularly both score. Additionally, both teams have high clean sheet rates: 47% for the home side and 44% for the away side, while the league clean sheet level is as high as 92%, with seasonal average goals conceded only 0.59 and 0.69 respectively, which favors matches with one or no goals scored. Although Sanat have 60% BTTS in their last 5 matches and average 1.6 goals scored, the short-term away signal does not outweigh the strong seasonal trends, therefore I assign 70% to 'No'.

xG and defensive analysis: the home side averages xG 1.08 and concedes 0.68 xG, the visitors average 1.12 xG and concede 1.09 xG; from this I derive expected goals of 1.09 for Niroye Zamini and 0.90 for Sanat Naft, totaling 1.99 expected goals. A Poisson model for a sum of 1.99 yields probability of Over 1.5 goals ≈59%, Over 2.5 ≈32% and Over 3.5 ≈14%, meaning results under 2.5 are more likely (~68%) and especially under 3.5 (~86%). Seasonal indicators confirm low goal potential: only 29% of home matches and 25% of away matches finished Over 2.5, while Under 3.5 occurred in 88% of Niroye Zamini’s matches and 94% of Sanat Naft’s. Additionally, Sanat Naft registers more shots on target (4.33 vs 2.4), but the low total xG and moderate finishing rates (conversion 13% for the home team, 9% for the visitors) do not suggest frequent high-scoring games. Based on this I recommend backing the Under market and select the 3.5 line as the strongest signal (model ~86% and seasonal 88–94%), while Under 2.5 (≈68%) is also a sensible, more conventional alternative.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: the home team were level at the break in 82% of their matches this season and the away team in 69%, which clearly favors an X result after 45 minutes. At the same time the home side win 59% of matches versus 31% for the visitors and have a strong second half — they average 0.88 goals after the break, win 53% of second halves and score at least one goal after half-time in 71% of matches. The hosts average 1.29 goals per game compared to 0.81 for the guests, have an xG of 1.08 versus the visitors’ 1.12, but concede only 0.68 xG, suggesting greater ability to maintain a lead after scoring. For these reasons the most likely HT/FT scenario is X/1 (draw at half-time, home win), although due to the away side’s form in their last five matches (60% away wins vs 20% for the hosts) an X/X outcome also represents a significant risk.