Nõmme Kalju vs Tallinna FC Levadia: match statistics

Tallinna FC Levadia top the table and have won 17 of their 23 matches this season, suffering just one defeat, while Nõmme Kalju have 13 wins and 6 losses. The visitors have been particularly strong away from home: they win 83% of their matches, have yet to lose, score an average of 2.42 goals and concede just 0.92. Their superiority in chance creation is clear, with an average away xG of 2.64 compared with Kalju’s 1.93 at home, while Levadia’s opponents generate just 0.98 xG. However, the hosts are in excellent current form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 22 goals in that run, giving them genuine attacking credentials. Nevertheless, Levadia average 22.75 shots and 7.92 shots on target per away match, compared with Kalju’s 16.33 and 6.33 at home, which points to a higher probability of a victory for the league leaders.

The strongest argument for both teams to score is the attacking output: Nõmme Kalju average 2.91 goals, while Levadia average 2.42, with very high xG figures of 2.24 and 2.64 respectively. The hosts are in excellent goalscoring form, netting 22 goals in their last five matches, while Levadia have averaged as much as 2.98 xG during this period. Levadia have kept a clean sheet in only 8% of their matches and have seen BTTS land in 92% of their games this season, so an in-form Kalju should find the back of the net. The risk to the pick is the hosts’ defense, which concedes just 0.64 goals on average and keeps a clean sheet in 55% of matches; however, the visitors’ consistent attacking threat and their 7.92 shots on target per match support the expectation that Levadia will score.

The signal for at least two goals is very strong: Nõmme Kalju surpassed this line in 100% of their league matches, while Levadia did so in 92%. Both teams have scored at least once in every match this season, with scoring averages of 2.91 and 2.42 goals per game, respectively. Their attacking potential is confirmed by high xG averages: 2.24 for the home side and 2.64 for the visitors, which results in a projected total of 3.45 goals despite Kalju’s solid defense. In their last five matches, Kalju scored as many as 4.4 goals per game, while Levadia averaged 2.6, meaning the attacking tempo remains clearly above the league average of 3.09 goals. The Over 1.5 line offers the greatest value, as it requires only two goals, while the season data and current form point to significantly higher goal potential.

Nõmme Kalju start matches exceptionally strongly: they have led at half-time in 8 of 11 games, or 73%, averaging 1.45 goals scored and just 0.09 conceded before the break. Tallinna FC Levadia have been excellent over the season as a whole, with an 83% win rate and an average of 2.42 goals scored, but away from home they have led at half-time in only 42% of matches and conceded 0.58 goals before the break. Current form further favors the hosts: in their last five outings, they have won 80% of matches, scoring as many as 3.2 goals in the first halves and conceding none. Kalju also have the defensive edge over the full 90 minutes, keeping a clean sheet in 55% of matches compared with Levadia’s mere 8%. Therefore, the most likely scenario is for the hosts to lead at the break and maintain their winning advantage until full-time—an HT/FT 1/1 outcome.