Nõmme Kalju vs Tammeka: match statistics

I back the home win (1). Nõmme Kalju have 33 goals this season versus Tammeka’s 21, and at home they average 1.9 goals per match while Tammeka averages only 1.13 on the road. Defensively the hosts concede 1.00 goal at home on average, while the visitors concede 1.88 away; the home record of +9 versus the guests’ -6 further emphasizes Kalju’s advantage. Chance quality is similar (average xG: hosts 1.83 at home vs visitors 1.92 away), but Kalju convert those chances more efficiently — shot conversion 12% versus 6% and only 10% of matches without scoring compared to 38% for Tammeka. Although Tammeka arrive in better form (last 5: 4 wins, averaging 2.4 points), the season-long advantages in attacking efficiency and the hosts’ more stable defense lead me to favor a Nõmme Kalju victory.

Both teams have a season BTTS rate of 50% (Nõmme Kalju 50% vs Tammeka 50%), and in the last 5 matches both sides record BTTS at 60%, while the league percentage of matches with goals from both teams is 57%. Tammeka shows clear offensive form in the last 5 fixtures: scoring 25 goals (avg 5.0 per match) and averaging 17.38 shots with 5.88 on target and xG 1.92, whereas Nõmme Kalju records 11.1 shots, 3.9 on target and xG 1.35. Defenses of both teams also leave room for goals: Nõmme Kalju conceded an average of 1.6 goals in the last 5 matches and 1.1 goals per game seasonally, while Tammeka concedes 1.88 goals per game on the season. Additionally, clean sheet percentages are low (30% hosts vs 25% guests), and seasonally hosts scored 33 goals versus Tammeka’s 21, indicating both sides regularly find the net. Considering 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches for both teams, Tammeka’s higher xG and shot volume (1.92 vs 1.35) and low clean sheet rates, the BTTS - Yes scenario appears more likely.

Based on xG: Nõmme Kalju has an attacking xG of 1.35 while Tammeka concedes 1.52 xG on average, yielding ~1.44 expected goals for the home side. Tammeka’s attacking xG is 1.92 while Nõmme Kalju concedes 1.66 xG on average, yielding ~1.79 expected goals for the visitors; total expected goals ≈ 3.23. The visitors are in clear scoring form — 25 goals in their last 5 matches (5.0 per game); their recent xG is 2.31 with an average of 17.38 shots and 5.88 on target, increasing the likelihood of a higher goal count. Seasonal indicators support a goal-heavy scenario: matches over 2.5 goals are 50% for the home team and 63% for the visitors, while the league average goals is 3.11 (our projection 3.23). Both teams rarely keep clean sheets (30% and 25%) and in 50% of matches each side has both scored and conceded, therefore I recommend Over 2.5 as the strongest signal (estimated probability of Over 2.5 ~63%).

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a home win (X/1), which I assign a 30% probability. There is a strong first-half draw signal: Nõmme Kalju were level at the break in 60% of their matches and Tammeka in 50%, yielding an expected HT draw frequency of around 55%. After the interval the hosts have the edge – Kalju average 0.9 goals in the second half versus Tammeka’s 0.38 and gain an average of 1.7 points after the break compared to 1.38 for the visitors, which favors a turnaround. Additionally, Kalju win 50% of home matches and have higher shot conversion (11% vs 6%), while Tammeka generates higher xG (1.92 vs 1.35) but concedes on average 1.88 goals per game, which indicates risk for the away side. For these reasons I rate X/1 highest (30%), with the main alternatives being draw/draw (X/X 14%) and away lead maintained to full-time (2/2 14%) because Tammeka score more frequently in the first half (0.75 goals on average vs 0.3 for the hosts).