Nõmme United vs Paide: match statistics
Nõmme United vs Paide: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nõmme United play Paide in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match date is 10 May 2026 at 16:00. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Nõmme United: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Paide: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nõmme United scores 1.95 and concedes 2.30 goals per match. Paide scores 1.60 and concedes 1.40. League average: 3.11 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nõmme United 90%, Paide 70%. Over 2.5: Nõmme United 95%, Paide 55%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 66%.
xG, shots and style
Paide has higher xG: 1.65 vs 1.50. Nõmme United: 11.9 shots per match, Paide: 13.7.
Match halves
Nõmme United: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 1.20. Paide: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.80.
Goals by minute
Nõmme United: 76-90+ (10 goals). Paide: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.11 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 66%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
Nõmme United are favorites at home: they have a 60% home win rate and average 3.4 goals per home match, with 14.2 shots and 6.0 on target per game. Paide away average 2.2 goals with 12.8 shots and 5.8 on target and a 17% conversion rate, so the hosts have the edge in volume and efficiency of attempts (24% vs 17%). Defensively Nõmme is unstable — in their last 5 home matches they conceded 13 goals (2.6 per game), while Paide conceded 5 goals in their last 5 matches (1.0 per game) and have 20% clean sheets on the road. Home xG is 1.8 versus Paide’s 1.62 xG away, and neither team had matches without scoring (0% such games), with Nõmme’s average total goals at home of 5.0, which indicates high potential for goals from both sides. Considering the 60% home win rate, higher shooting efficiency for the hosts and concurrent defensive issues (13 conceded in last 5), I predict a home win with 58% probability, draw 20% and away win 22%.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nõmme United | Paide | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.48 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Paide is 11% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Nõmme United · 2 pts / match - Paide
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nõmme United is 22% better for: goals scored per match.
1.95 goals / match - Nõmme United · 1.6 goals / match - Paide
Paide is 64% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.3 goals / match - Nõmme United · 1.4 goals / match - Paide
Nõmme United scores in 90% of matches (18 of 20 matches), while Paide keeps a clean sheet in 20% (4 of 20 matches).
Paide scores in 90% of matches (18 of 20 matches), while Nõmme United keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Nõmme United
Over / Under — Paide
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Paide is 55% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Nõmme United · 1.55 pts / match - Paide
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nõmme United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Paide - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nõmme United
Paide
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Nõmme United | Liga | Paide | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 4.25 | 3.11 | ▼ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 90% | 58% | ▲ 70% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 95% | 66% | ▼ 55% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 23% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 95% | 74% | ▼ 65% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 95% | 88% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Nõmme United 0 - 0 - 1 Paide. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nõmme United vs Paide?
The Meistriliiga match finished Nõmme United 2:3 Paide. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Nõmme United vs Paide?
Nõmme United score 1.95 goals per game on average and Paide 1.60. The Meistriliiga average is 3.11 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 66% of games. Both teams score in 90% of Nõmme United's matches and 70% of Paide's.
What form are Nõmme United and Paide in?
Over the last 5 games Nõmme United have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Paide 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nõmme United vs Paide?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Nõmme United vs Paide: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.