Noteć Czarnków vs Cartusia Kartuzy: match statistics

I back a home win for Noteć Czarnków; the hosts clearly dominate in chance creation — average xG at home is 2.37 versus Cartusia’s 1.35 xG away, and Noteć averages 17.5 shots and 7.67 on target per match compared to 10.88 shots and 4.5 on target for the visitors. Defensively Noteć also looks stronger: average xG against at home is 1.01 and they concede 1.25 goals per home match, while Cartusia concedes 1.58 goals away and has an away goal difference of -6. However, Noteć’s finishing is a concern — conversion rate is around 6% and despite 2.37 xG they only score 1.25 goals at home, whereas Cartusia posts an 11% conversion and can be dangerous with fewer shots. Form is unstable: Noteć have 0.8 pts from the last 5 (1-1-3), Cartusia 1.0 pt (1-2-2), so a draw or a slip from the visitors is possible, but Noteć’s superiority in quantity and quality of chances favors the hosts.

Noteć averages 1.62 goals scored and concedes 1.23 per season, but in the last 5 matches the home side scores only 0.4 goals and concedes 2.0 on average, and Notecć’s BTTS in the last 5 is only 20%, suggesting the hosts have recently failed to score frequently. Cartusia has a low season BTTS rate (25%) and averages 1.08 scored and 1.58 conceded, although in the last 5 their BTTS rises to 60% and they average 1.2 goals, indicating a short-term offensive improvement for the visitors. xG analysis shows moderate goal expectancy: home xG 1.53 vs xG against Cartusia 1.73, and away xG 1.35 vs xG against Noteć 1.6 — both sides create chances, but form does not translate symmetrically into goals. Considering the conflicting signals (seasonal Noteć 62% BTTS vs last 5 at 20%) and the fact Noteć have only 0.4 goals per game in L5, I favor No BTTS: estimate 65% for "no" vs 35% for "yes".

The xG-based model projects total expected goals of 2.88 (home xG 1.53 vs away 1.35), which is very close to the league average of 2.91. Seasonally both teams often exceed 1.5 goals: Noteć has 69% of matches with Over 1.5, and Cartusia 67%, which together supports an estimated probability of Over 1.5 at ~78%. The 2.5 line is less certain — seasonal Over 2.5 is 54% for Noteć and 50% for Cartusia, and a Poisson with λ=2.88 gives roughly a 55% chance of Over 2.5, so this is a marginal signal. In the last 5 matches Noteć scored 2 goals (0.4 per match) and conceded 10 (2.0 per match), while Cartusia scored 6 (1.2) and conceded 7 (1.4), which raises the likelihood of at least two goals. Considering xG 1.53/1.35, average on-target shots 5.8 vs 4.5 and high seasonal Over 1.5 (69%/67%), the best and strongest play is Over 1.5.

Noteć Czarnków has a clear statistical advantage: at home they score an average of 1.62 goals per match versus Cartusia’s 1.08 away, and they earn 1.85 points per game compared to 1.0 for the visitors. At half-time the hosts were level in 6 of 11 matches (55%), and the average goals by half-time are 0.64 for Noteć and 0.36 for Cartusia, so first halves most often end in a draw. In the second half Noteć improves efficiency — scoring an average of 0.91 goals after the break and averaging 1.82 points in second halves, while Cartusia scores 0.73 and averages 1.55 points, which gives the hosts the edge in the second half. Cartusia also concedes on average 1.09 goals by half-time (concededAVGHT_away 1.09) and has a lower xG (1.35 versus Noteć’s 1.53), so a Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of draw at the break and home win (X/1) is the strongest signal from the data and I assign it approximately a 34% probability.