Notts County vs Leicester City: match statistics

Leicester City have a slightly better run of form over their last five matches: they have won 3 games, scored 8 goals and averaged 2 points per match. Notts County remain unbeaten during this period, but as many as 3 of their 5 outings ended in draws, alongside 2 wins. The hosts have shown a more solid defensive setup, conceding just 2 goals in five matches compared with Leicester’s 4, although they have also scored fewer, with 6 goals. The visitors’ superior attacking efficiency and higher number of wins give them a slight edge, although a draw remains a realistic outcome given Notts County’s run of draws.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as both teams scored in only 40% of Notts County’s last five matches and just 20% of Leicester City’s. Notts County conceded only 0.4 goals per game during this period, or 2 goals in total across five appearances, which significantly limits Leicester’s chances of scoring. Leicester have shown the stronger attack, averaging 1.6 goals with an xG of 1.39, but their opponents scored only 1.2 goals per game, with a low xG of 0.92. The hosts are also on a run of five draws or wins, while Leicester conceded only 4 goals in their last five matches, making a scenario in which at least one side fails to score more likely.

Notts County have scored 6 goals and conceded just 2 in their last five matches, resulting in a low combined average of 1.6 goals per game. Leicester City have scored 8 goals over the same period but have also allowed their opponents just 4 goals, meaning their matches have averaged 2.4 goals. The visitors have greater attacking potential according to xG, 1.39 compared with the hosts’ 0.92, but Notts County have allowed opponents an xG of 1.24 and have defended effectively in terms of actual results. Only 20% of Notts County’s recent matches and 40% of Leicester’s have gone Over 2.5 goals, giving the scenario of no more than three goals a clear advantage. The projected total of 2.20 goals supports selecting Under 3.5 goals as the strongest signal.

The strongest Half-Time signal favors Notts County: the hosts were leading at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches, compared with Leicester doing so in 3 of 5. During this period, neither team conceded a goal before half-time, while both averaged exactly 1.0 goal in the first half, indicating a slight but genuine home advantage stemming from their more frequent tendency to take the lead. Notts County remain unbeaten in five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, and conceding just 0.4 goals per game compared with Leicester’s 0.8. However, the hosts are less effective after the interval, averaging only 0.2 goals, which is why the lead/draw scenario carries a substantial 17% probability and represents the main alternative. Although Leicester have won 3 of their last 5 matches, the combination of Notts County’s Half-Time advantage, solid defense and home advantage makes the 1/1 HT/FT outcome the most likely single result.