Notts County vs Salford City: match statistics

Notts County are favorites in this match based on strong home metrics: the hosts score 1.88 goals per home match versus Salford’s 1.21 on the road, and their home xG is 1.45 compared to the visitors’ 1.42. The hosts average 5 shots on target per home match versus Salford’s 3.88 on away trips and have a higher finishing rate (16% vs 10%), translating to 75 goals for Notts this season versus 65 for Salford. Defensively Notts also look better at home: they concede 1.04 goals per match with an xG against of 1.11, while Salford concedes 1.17 goals on the road with xG against 1.38 and have a lower clean sheet rate (33% vs 21%). For balance, Salford have been in better recent form over the last 5 matches — 3 wins and 2 draws, 8 goals and an average of 2.2 points per match, versus Notts’ 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (4 goals, 1.6 points). Considering finishing efficiency and Notts’ home advantage, I assess the probabilities as: Home win 55%, Draw 25%, Away win 20%.

Both teams have BTTS at 50% this season (Notts 50% vs Salford 50%), with the league average at 53%, which provides slight support for a both-teams-to-score scenario. This season Notts score 1.5 and concede 1.08 on average, while Salford score 1.21 and concede 1.17, so both sides have comparable scoring and conceding profiles. In the last 5 matches Notts have BTTS in 40% of games, averaging 0.8 scored and 0.6 conceded, whereas Salford have BTTS in 60%, averaging 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, indicating the visitors are more effective recently. xG also favors both sides: Notts generate 1.75 xG against Salford’s defense at 1.38 (a 0.37 xG advantage), and Salford have 1.42 xG against Notts’ defense at 1.24 (a 0.18 xG advantage), which means both teams create chances. Although Notts have a higher clean sheet rate 42% versus Salford’s 21%, the aggregate data (50% seasonal BTTS, league 53% and the visitors’ scoring form) leads me to lean toward BTTS - Yes.

The xG-based model gives Notts County 1.57 expected goals and Salford 1.33, totaling 2.90 xG for the match (home xG 1.75 vs away 1.42; xG conceded home 1.24 vs away 1.38). For a mean of 2.90, a Poisson distribution implies probability of Over 1.5 goals at ~79%, Over 2.5 at ~55% and Over 3.5 at ~33%. Seasonal metrics support the direction: Notts have Over1.5 in 63% of matches, Salford in 67%, and both teams have Over0.5 at 88% and 96% respectively, with BTTS 50% for each side. In the last 5 matches Notts scored 4 goals (0.8 per match) versus Salford’s 8 goals (1.6 per match), while Notts keep 42% clean sheets compared to Salford’s 21%, which partially limits downside but does not offset the combined 2.90 xG. Conclusion: back the Over line at 1.5 (strongest signal) — Over 2.5 has moderate backing (~55%) and Over 3.5 remains riskier (~33%).

I back X/1 (draw at half-time, Notts County to win) because the most likely half-time state is a draw: the home side have been level at the break in 58% of matches, the visitors in 38%, and in the last five fixtures both teams shared a half-time draw in 60% of cases. Notts County hold a significant second-half advantage: the home team average 0.96 goals after the break versus Salford’s 0.54, with second-half goals per game of 1.71 for Notts compared to 1.13 for Salford. Additionally, the hosts record a higher xG (1.75 vs 1.42), more on-target shots (5.13 vs 3.88) and a higher average points return at home (1.96 vs 1.58), which increases the probability of a turnaround after half-time. The first half is therefore most likely to remain undecided (home teams score 0.54 on average in the first half, visitors 0.67), but the endings favor Notts — 12 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 6 for Salford — indicating greater chances for the home side to secure the Full-Time win. Given these figures and the fact the hosts have 42% clean sheets at home versus Salford’s 21%, the strongest data signal is a draw at half-time followed by a Notts victory (X/1).