Notts County vs Swindon Town: match statistics
Notts County presents solid home form with 54% of matches won at home and an impressive +10 goal difference at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 1.77 goals per home match with only 15% of games without scoring, testifying to an effective offense. Swindon Town, despite a similar away win percentage (54%), is in weaker form with three defeats in the last five matches and a 9:9 goal record in this period. A key factor is Notts County's advantage in possession (58% vs 54%) and better home defense (averaging 1 goal conceded vs 1.23 for the visitors). Considering the home pitch advantage, better current form (2 wins in the last 5 matches vs Swindon's poor streak), and xG statistics showing an advantage for the hosts, I expect a victory for Notts County, although the class difference is not large enough to rule out a draw or a surprise by the visitors.
Notts County vs Swindon Town: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Notts County play Swindon Town in EFL League Two (England). The match date is 27 January 2026 at 20:45. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Notts County: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match. Swindon Town: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Notts County scores 1.59 and concedes 1.06 goals per match. Swindon Town scores 1.52 and concedes 1.28. League average: 2.57 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Notts County 53%, Swindon Town 59%. Over 2.5: Notts County 55%, Swindon Town 63%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Swindon Town has higher xG: 1.35 vs 1.34. Notts County: 11.0 shots per match, Swindon Town: 11.7.
Match halves
Notts County: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.88. Swindon Town: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.83.
Goals by minute
Notts County: 76-90+ (18 goals). Swindon Town: 76-90+ (19 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
League Two: 2.57 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
Notts County presents solid home form with 54% of matches won at home and an impressive +10 goal difference at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 1.77 goals per home match with only 15% of games without scoring, testifying to an effective offense. Swindon Town, despite a similar away win percentage (54%), is in weaker form with three defeats in the last five matches and a 9:9 goal record in this period. A key factor is Notts County's advantage in possession (58% vs 54%) and better home defense (averaging 1 goal conceded vs 1.23 for the visitors). Considering the home pitch advantage, better current form (2 wins in the last 5 matches vs Swindon's poor streak), and xG statistics showing an advantage for the hosts, I expect a victory for Notts County, although the class difference is not large enough to rule out a draw or a surprise by the visitors.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Notts County | Swindon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Notts County is 175% better for: last-5 form.
2.2 pts / match - Notts County · 0.8 pts / match - Swindon Town
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Notts County is 5% better for: goals scored per match.
1.59 goals / match - Notts County · 1.52 goals / match - Swindon Town
Notts County is 21% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.06 goals / match - Notts County · 1.28 goals / match - Swindon Town
Notts County scores in 82% of matches (40 of 49 matches), while Swindon Town keeps a clean sheet in 28% (13 of 46 matches).
Swindon Town scores in 85% of matches (39 of 46 matches), while Notts County keeps a clean sheet in 33% (16 of 49 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Notts County
Over / Under — Swindon Town
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Notts County is 16% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.49 pts / match - Notts County · 1.28 pts / match - Swindon Town
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Notts County - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 53%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Swindon Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (18 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (19 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Notts County
Swindon Town
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League Two).
Teams vs league
| Notts County | Liga | Swindon Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.65 | 2.57 | ▲ 2.80 |
| Both teams scored | • 53% | 52% | ▲ 59% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 55% | 48% | ▲ 63% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 27% | • 28% |
| Goal before half-time | • 67% | 67% | ▲ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 90% | 78% | ▲ 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Notts County 0 - 1 - 0 Swindon Town. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Notts County vs Swindon Town?
The EFL League Two match finished Notts County 2:1 Swindon Town. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Notts County vs Swindon Town?
Notts County score 1.59 goals per game on average and Swindon Town 1.52. The EFL League Two average is 2.57 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 53% of Notts County's matches and 59% of Swindon Town's.
What form are Notts County and Swindon Town in?
Over the last 5 games Notts County have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Swindon Town 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Notts County vs Swindon Town?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.