Notts County vs Swindon Town: match statistics
Notts County presents solid home form with 54% of matches won at home and an impressive +10 goal difference at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 1.77 goals per home match with only 15% of games without scoring, testifying to an effective offense. Swindon Town, despite a similar away win percentage (54%), is in weaker form with three defeats in the last five matches and a 9:9 goal record in this period. A key factor is Notts County's advantage in possession (58% vs 54%) and better home defense (averaging 1 goal conceded vs 1.23 for the visitors). Considering the home pitch advantage, better current form (2 wins in the last 5 matches vs Swindon's poor streak), and xG statistics showing an advantage for the hosts, I expect a victory for Notts County, although the class difference is not large enough to rule out a draw or a surprise by the visitors.
Notts County vs Swindon Town: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Notts County played against Swindon Town in EFL League Two (England). The game was played on January 27, 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
Notts County has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. Swindon Town has 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, with 1.20 points per game.
Scoring records
Notts County scores 1.50 goals per game and allows 1.04. Swindon Town scores 1.62 and allows 1.19. Games in this league average 2.63 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 58% of Notts County's games and 54% of Swindon Town's. The Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 62%, compared with league averages of 55% for BTTS and 48% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Swindon Town has the higher season xG average, 1.42 to 1.28 per game. Notts County takes 10.7 shots per game, while Swindon Town takes 12.6.
First-half and second-half trends
Notts County leads at halftime in 27% of its games and scores 0.88 goals per game after halftime. Swindon Town leads at halftime in 35% and scores 0.69 after halftime.
When the teams score
Notts County's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (10 goals). For Swindon Town, it is minutes 0-15 (10 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
League Two games average 2.63 goals. Both teams score in 55% of games, and 48% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Notts County presents solid home form with 54% of matches won at home and an impressive +10 goal difference at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 1.77 goals per home match with only 15% of games without scoring, testifying to an effective offense. Swindon Town, despite a similar away win percentage (54%), is in weaker form with three defeats in the last five matches and a 9:9 goal record in this period. A key factor is Notts County's advantage in possession (58% vs 54%) and better home defense (averaging 1 goal conceded vs 1.23 for the visitors). Considering the home pitch advantage, better current form (2 wins in the last 5 matches vs Swindon's poor streak), and xG statistics showing an advantage for the hosts, I expect a victory for Notts County, although the class difference is not large enough to rule out a draw or a surprise by the visitors.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Notts County | Swindon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Notts County is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / game - Notts County · 1.2 pts / game - Swindon Town
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Swindon Town is 8% better for: goals scored per game.
1.5 goals / game - Notts County · 1.62 goals / game - Swindon Town
Notts County is 14% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.04 goals / game - Notts County · 1.19 goals / game - Swindon Town
Notts County scores in 85% of games (22 of 26 meczów), while Swindon Town keeps a clean sheet in 31% (8 of 26 meczów).
Swindon Town scores in 81% of games (21 of 26 meczów), while Notts County keeps a clean sheet in 31% (8 of 26 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Notts County
Over / Under - Swindon Town
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Swindon Town is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / game - Notts County · 1.5 pts / game - Swindon Town
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Notts County - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 27% of games and wins 50%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Swindon Town - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 35% of games and wins 54%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Notts County
Swindon Town
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League Two).
Teams vs league
| Notts County | Liga | Swindon Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.54 | 2.63 | ▲ 2.81 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 58% | 55% | • 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 48% | ▲ 62% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 31% | 25% | ▲ 31% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 58% | 69% | ▲ 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 92% | 77% | ▼ 65% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Notts County's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against Swindon Town. Games average 4.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Notts County vs Swindon Town?
The EFL League Two match finished Notts County 2:1 Swindon Town. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Notts County vs Swindon Town?
Notts County score 1.50 goals per game on average and Swindon Town 1.62. The EFL League Two average is 2.63 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Notts County's matches and 54% of Swindon Town's.
What form are Notts County and Swindon Town in?
Over the last 5 games Notts County have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Swindon Town 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Notts County vs Swindon Town?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.