NSÍ vs AB: match statistics

NSÍ are top of the home table, winning 90% of their matches on home soil without suffering a single defeat, while AB lose 70% of their away games. The hosts average 2.0 goals per home match with an xG of 1.77, whereas AB score just 0.7 goals away from home and fail to find the net in 50% of such fixtures. NSÍ’s defense looks highly solid, conceding an average of 0.4 goals at home and keeping a clean sheet in 70% of matches, significantly limiting the visitors’ chances. AB have lost 4 of their last five matches and conceded 11 goals, while NSÍ have won 9 of their last 10 home games. The difference is also reflected in the quality of chances created: NSÍ average 14.6 shots per home match compared with AB’s 8.7 attempts away from home.

NSÍ score an average of 2.1 goals per match, while AB concede 1.5, making a home goal highly likely; additionally, NSÍ have not finished a single league match without scoring. For AB, the main risk is their average of just 0.7 goals scored and as many as 50% of matches ending without a goal, but NSÍ’s defense concedes an average of 1.9 goals and allows opponents an xG of 2.00. In their last five matches, AB have been scoring 1.4 goals per game, with an xG of 1.35, while NSÍ have conceded 1.6 goals and allowed opponents 2.15 xG. Both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five appearances, strengthening the signal for goals from both sides despite AB’s weaker overall record. BTTS - Yes is therefore moderately preferred, as NSÍ’s very strong attack should combine with AB’s genuine chance of exploiting the hosts’ clear defensive problems.

NSÍ average 2.1 goals per match and has increased that figure to 2.4 over their last five games, while AB are currently conceding as many as 2.2 goals per match. The hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches, and their average xG against stands at a high 2.00, giving AB a realistic chance of adding to the score despite their season scoring average of 0.7. In the last five matches for both teams, the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in 80% and 60% of cases respectively, while both teams scored in 60% of those games. Over 1.5 goals is nevertheless the strongest pick, as NSÍ have gone over this line in 100% of their matches, AB in 70%, and the projected 3.20 goals comfortably exceeds the required two goals.

NSÍ have a clear first-half advantage: they led at the break in 60% of their matches and averaged 1.1 goals before half-time, while AB led in only 20% of games and scored 0.4 goals before the interval. In their last five appearances, the home side improved their defensive record before half-time to just 0.2 goals conceded per match, whereas AB were trailing at the break in 40% of their games over the same period. The quality gap is also evident over the full 90 minutes: NSÍ average 2.1 goals with a 50% win rate, while AB average 0.7 goals and have suffered defeats in as many as 70% of their matches. The hosts also produce more shots on target, 4.5 compared with 3.5, and their finishing efficiency stands at 21% versus 8% for the visitors. The most consistent scenario is NSÍ leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage to win, although their average of 1.9 goals conceded per match leaves a moderate risk of a late AB turnaround.