NSÍ vs EB - Streymur: match statistics

NSÍ sit top of the table with a season record of 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses; at home they have won all matches (100% wins) and keep clean sheets in 67% of games, conceding an average of 0.33 goals per match. In attack the hosts are in strong form — scoring 14 goals in the last 5 matches (2.8 per match), averaging 1.67 goals at home, taking 14.33 shots per match with 5 on target and an average xG of 1.63, indicating the quality of created chances. EB - Streymur are 7th, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses this season; in the last 5 matches they have conceded 13 goals (2.6 per match); away they concede 1.5 goals on average and have an xG against of 1.89, which highlights clear defensive issues. Statistically NSÍ dominate possession (56% vs 28%), take more than twice as many shots (14.33 vs 7) and generate higher xG (1.63 vs 1.11), while EB, despite higher shot efficiency 21% vs 12% for NSÍ, create far fewer chances. Considering NSÍ’s 2.6 average points from the last 5 matches versus EB’s 0.8 and the hosts’ advantage in chance creation and defensive stability, I predict a home win.

The strongest signal for BTTS is that EB-Streymur has 100% of matches this season with both teams scoring and 0% clean sheets, meaning their games always see goals from both sides. NSÍ averages only 0.33 goals per match seasonally, but in the last 5 matches they average 2.8 goals and have 80% BTTS in that period, indicating a clear improvement from the home side. Both teams concede a lot of chances: NSÍ has season xG against of 2.07, EB 1.89, and the visitors have conceded 13 goals in their last 5 matches (2.6 per match), so they are prone to leaks. Additionally, EB converts shots far better (21% vs 6% for NSÍ) and registers 3.0 on-target shots on average versus 2.0, which justifies expecting chance conversion. On this basis I give 80% for BTTS - Yes and 20% for BTTS - No, because the visitors' 100% season BTTS and NSÍ form (2.8 goals in 5 matches) weigh more heavily in favor of goals from both sides.

NSÍ have scored 14 goals in their last 5 matches (2.8 per match) with average xG = 1.7, while EB-Streymur scored 4 goals in their last 5 (0.8 per match) with xG = 0.89; simultaneously EB conceded 13 goals in those five fixtures (2.6 per match). From season data, xG are 0.78 for NSÍ and 1.11 for EB, and xG against these teams are 2.07 (against NSÍ) and 1.89 (against EB); averaging seasonal and last-5 estimates yields expected goals of 1.59 for the home side and 1.33 for the away side (total 2.92). A Poisson model with λ=2.92 gives roughly a 79% chance of Over 1.5 goals, ~56% for Over 2.5 and ~34% for Over 3.5 goals. Historical rates further support Over 2.5: NSÍ have 67% of matches >2.5, EB-Streymur 100%, and in the last-5 runs these figures were 60% and 80%, therefore I regard Over 2.5 as the strongest signal and assign it a 72% probability.

The most likely scenario is the away side leading at half-time and winning the match (2/2): EB - Streymur averages 1.5 goals per game and 1.0 goals by half-time, while NSÍ averages 0.33 goals per game and 0.0 by half-time. The visitors also have higher xG: 1.11 versus 0.78 for the hosts, more shots on target (3.0 vs 2.0) and substantially better finishing (21% vs 6%), which increases the probability of maintaining their lead. Over the season the visitors have led at the break in 50% of matches, the hosts in 0% (leadingAtHTPercentage_away 50.0 vs leadingAtHTPercentage_home 0.0), but in the last 5 fixtures NSÍ’s form is 'dwwww' and they led at half-time in 40% of those five, which raises the chance of a half-time draw. At the same time the visitors concede an average of 1.5 goals per game, and away all their matches have ended with goals at both ends (1.5 conceded on average; 100% of such matches), so both-teams-to-score scenarios remain realistic. Given the advantage in xG, finishing and the visitors’ 50% rate of leading at half-time, I assign the highest weight to the 2/2 scenario, with lower weight to a half-time draw and a full-time draw.