Nueva Chicago vs Quilmes: match statistics

Nueva Chicago are going through a very poor spell, having lost their last 5 matches without scoring a single goal, although their home performances remain considerably more solid. At home, the hosts concede an average of just 0.69 goals per match, keep a clean sheet in 46% of their games and lose only 15% of the time. Quilmes arrive with 2 wins in their last 5 matches and a run of just 3 goals conceded; however, they win only 8% of their away matches and fail to score in as many as 62% of them. Nueva Chicago create chances worth an average of 1.54 xG at home, compared with Quilmes’ 1.35 xG away from home, and also register more shots on target per match: 4.38 to 3.31. Home advantage and the hosts’ significantly more stable defense point towards a narrow victory for Nueva Chicago, although their high draw rate of 54% significantly increases the likelihood of the points being shared.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from Nueva Chicago’s very poor current scoring form: in their last 5 matches, the team has failed to score a single goal, and BTTS did not land in any of those fixtures. Over the same period, Quilmes conceded just 0.6 goals per match and maintained defensive control, allowing opponents an average xG of 1.11. Across the season, the hosts have recorded BTTS in just 21% of matches, compared with 31% for Quilmes, both clearly below the league average of 40%. Nueva Chicago have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their matches, while Quilmes have failed to score in as many as 62% of fixtures, making both a home win to nil and another match without a goal from the hosts realistic scenarios. Although both teams’ expected goals figures are relatively solid—1.52 for Nueva Chicago and 1.35 for Quilmes—the hosts’ current attacking form strongly reinforces the outcome in which at least one team fails to score.

The match profile clearly points to a low-scoring outcome: Nueva Chicago have failed to score in their last 5 matches, with an average of just 1.4 goals conceded across those fixtures. Over the same period, Quilmes have conceded only 3 goals in 5 appearances, while their opponents’ average xG stood at 1.11, limiting the hosts’ chances of breaking through. Across the season, Nueva Chicago’s matches have finished with under 3.5 goals in 100% of cases, compared with 77% for Quilmes, while the league-wide average is just 1.94 goals. Additionally, both teams have a low percentage of matches in which both sides scored, at 21% and 31%, respectively, making a result with a maximum of three goals the most likely outcome. The Under 3.5 goals line is strongly supported by both seasonal trends and the hosts’ current attacking form.

A draw at both half-time and full-time is the most likely outcome, as Nueva Chicago were level at the break in 57% of their matches, while Quilmes recorded the same in 54%. The hosts concede just 0.07 goals in the first half at home and kept a clean sheet before the break in 93% of matches, while the visitors average only 0.31 goals scored before half-time. The match should remain tight after the interval as well: the hosts have conceded just 0.43 goals per game throughout the season, while both teams have recorded a low percentage of matches in which both sides scored—21% and 31%, respectively. However, Nueva Chicago's form is clearly weaker, with five consecutive defeats and no goals scored in those matches, limiting the hosts' chances of turning the draw in their favor. Quilmes have conceded an average of 0.6 goals in their last five appearances and avoided defeat at half-time on four occasions, giving them a strong case to maintain a tight, low-scoring stalemate.