Nyíregyháza Spartacus vs Zalaegerszegi TE: match statistics

Zalaegerszegi TE performs better in key categories: they sit 4th in the table versus Nyíregyházy’s 10th and have 13 wins this season compared to the home side’s 9, with a goal difference of 47:35 vs 42:53. In the last 5 matches the visitors have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (PPG 2.0) while the hosts are 2-1-2 (PPG 1.4); goals in the last 5 amount to 10 for the visitors and 8 for the hosts. Defensively the visitors have a clear edge: they concede on average 1.36 goals away compared to the hosts’ 1.73 conceded at home, and in the last 5 matches the visitors have let in 5 goals versus 10 for the hosts. The home side creates more chances (average xG at home 1.73 and 5.53 shots on target), but Zalaegerszegi are more efficient (conversion 11% vs 9% and FTS 14% vs 20%) and keep clean sheets more often (29% vs 7%), which favors an away win.

I back BTTS - Yes because the league has a high BTTS rate of 60% and the teams’ season BTTS rates are 50% for Nyíregyházy and 57% for Zalaegerszegi, averaging ~54% in favor of both teams scoring. In the last 5 matches the hosts had BTTS in 60% (3/5) while the visitors only 20% (1/5), but Zalaegerszegi averaged 2.0 goals across those five (10 goals) and Nyíregyháza conceded 2.0 on average (10 conceded), which increases the likelihood of both teams finding the net. xG analysis shows the home side generates 1.64 xG per game versus the 1.83 xG that the visitors typically concede, and Zalaegerszegi have 1.39 xG while the home team concedes 1.35 xG — both teams create >1.3 xG and therefore produce scoring chances. Additionally, the hosts have a 38% clean sheet expected rate while the visitors have 29% (i.e. in 62% and 71% of matches respectively they conceded at least one goal), and the league average goals is 2.99; the sum of the teams’ season goals averages is 1.81+1.29=3.10. Taken together, the strongest signal from the data is BTTS = Yes.

Nyíregyháza averages 1.81 goals scored per game (xG 1.64) and concedes 1.00, while Zalaegerszegi scores 1.29 (xG 1.39) and concedes 1.36. Average xG against are 1.35 for the home side and 1.83 for the away side, which when averaging attack and defense yields expected 1.74 goals for Nyíregyháza and 1.37 for Zalaegerszegi, a combined 3.11 expected goals. Based on the 3.11 total, a Poisson distribution estimates ~82% probability for Over 1.5 goals and ~60% for Over 2.5, which aligns with season Over1.5 rates: 81% (home) and 71% (away). Season Over2.5 rates are 44% for the home team and 50% for the away team, and the league average is 2.99 goals with 59% of matches Over 2.5, so Over 2.5 is plausible but less certain than Over 1.5. The strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (I recommend a bet on Over at the 1.5 line) due to the high 81%/71% season rates, the 3.11 expected goals and the modelled 82% probability.

I forecast a Half-Time draw with a home win at Full-Time (X/1). Nyíregyháza led at the break in 31% of matches, while Zalaegerszegi did so in only 7%, but the home side were level at half-time in 44% of games and the visitors in as many as 71%, which provides a strong signal for a draw in the first half. After the break Nyíregyháza hold the advantage: they average 1.81 goals per game versus 1.29 for the visitors, have higher xG (1.64 vs 1.39) and the opponent concedes more xG (Zalaegerszegi xG_against 1.83 vs 1.35 for the hosts), which favors a turnaround in favor of the home team. Additionally the hosts have 22 points at half-time and HTPPG of 1.38 versus 13 points and HTPPG of 0.93 for the guests, and both teams score in the second half in 100% of matches, so an HT draw most often should tip in the hosts’ favor after 90 minutes.