OB vs Horsens: match statistics

OB have clear arguments in their favor at home: they won their only home match so far, kept a clean sheet and average 1 goal scored and 0 conceded. The hosts also create significantly more chances, averaging 17 shots and 4 on target, while Horsens manage just 4 shots and 2 on target per away match. The difference in chance quality is substantial: OB’s average xG stands at 1.79, compared with just 0.52 for Horsens, while the visitors allow opponents an xG of 2.17. Horsens have lost both of their away matches to date, conceding an average of 2 goals and failing to keep a single clean sheet. Horsens’ better record in their last five matches, with 2 wins, limits the extent of OB’s advantage, but their away profile points to a higher probability of an OB victory.

A scenario in which at least one team fails to score is more likely, as OB averages only 0.5 goals at home and has scored just 0.6 goals per match across its last 5 games. Horsens produces very little offensively away from home, with an average xG of 0.52, just 2 shots on target and 4 attempts per match. Although neither side has kept a clean sheet yet, current BTTS figures are low—particularly OB’s 20% across its last five matches and Horsens’ 40%. OB has recently created chances worth 1.65 xG, while Horsens allows opponents 1.70 xG, meaning a home goal is realistic; however, the visitors’ attacking weakness reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring. Therefore, the most probable outcome appears to be BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team will fail to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or neither team scoring.

The 2.20-goal projection is based on both sides’ limited attacking potential: OB averaged 0.6 goals in their last five matches, while Horsens averaged 1.0. During the same period, both teams conceded 1.0 goal per match, and games featuring at least three goals accounted for only 20% of each team’s matches. The hosts’ potential is boosted by an xG of 1.65 over their last five games and Horsens’ weaker defense, which allows an average of 1.70 xG. However, the visitors manage only 4.0 shots per match and create an average of 1.01 xG. Additionally, neither team has recorded a match with at least four goals so far, making Under 3.5 goals the strongest pick.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time, as OB were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Horsens. During this period, OB scored just 0.2 goals before half-time and conceded the same number, while Horsens scored 0.4 but conceded 0.8. After the break, the advantage shifts to the visitors: Horsens average 0.6 goals scored and only 0.2 conceded, whereas OB score 0.4 and allow opponents to score 0.8. Furthermore, Horsens won the second half in 60% of their last five matches, compared with just 20% of such wins for OB, supporting the HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time and an away win at full-time.