Olimpia Elbląg vs Widzew Łódź II: match statistics

Olimpia Elbląg have a clearly stronger profile in their only home match so far, averaging 2.5 goals from 13.5 shots and 6 shots on target per game. Widzew Łódź II failed to score in their only away fixture, lost the match, and have found the net in 0% of their matches away from home. However, the hosts are vulnerable defensively, conceding an average of 2 goals at home and yet to keep a clean sheet, which increases the visitors’ chances of putting up a competitive fight. Although Widzew have won 3 of their last five matches and scored 10 goals, Olimpia have home advantage and superior chance-creation quality, supported by an xG of 1.58. A home win is therefore the most likely outcome, although their defensive shortcomings limit confidence in the pick.

The signal for both sides to score is based primarily on the last five matches: Olimpia have recorded BTTS in 80% of their games, while Widzew II have done so in 40%, averaging 1.6 and 2.0 goals scored respectively. During this period, the hosts conceded 1.6 goals per match, while their average xG against was 1.57, giving Widzew’s reserves a realistic opportunity to find the net. Widzew II created an average of 1.11 xG, while Olimpia have not kept a clean sheet in the available season data, making a goal for the visitors a credible scenario. Olimpia also have strong attacking arguments: their xG stands at 1.63, while Widzew II have allowed opponents an average of 1.10 xG in their last five outings and conceded 5 goals. The risk to the pick is increased by the fact that Widzew II failed to score in the available away data; however, their broader scoring form and Olimpia’s defensive vulnerability narrowly support BTTS - Yes.

In their last five matches, Olimpia scored an average of 1.6 goals and conceded 1.6, resulting in a total average of 3.2 goals per game. Over the same period, Widzew II scored 2.0 goals per match, while their games produced an average of 3.0 goals, with 60% of matches involving both teams featuring at least three goals. Olimpia’s average xG stands at 1.63, while the visitors create chances worth 1.11 xG and the hosts allow opponents 1.57 xG. The league has a high average of 3.55 goals per match, with 68% of games finishing Over 2.5 goals, making the 1.5 line offer a clearer safety margin than more demanding alternatives. Over 1.5 is the strongest selection, as the recent profiles of both teams support a scenario with at least two goals.

The strongest signal comes from Widzew Łódź II’s current form: the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 for Olimpia, while their average goals scored stand at 2.0 and 1.6, respectively. Widzew are also clearly stronger before the break, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over their last five matches, compared with Olimpia’s figures of 0.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. The visitors held a lead at the break in 50% of those matches, while the hosts did so in only 20%, increasing the likelihood of Widzew taking the advantage in the first half. After the break, Widzew average 1.0 goal and win the second half in 75% of their matches, whereas Olimpia win it in only 20%. Therefore, the most likely scenario remains a 1/1 HT/FT outcome, with the visitors leading at half-time and securing the full-time win. The strictly home-and-away data cover only one match each, so Olimpia’s advantage in such a small sample should not outweigh the much broader form shown across their last five appearances.