Olimpia Elbląg vs Wisła Płock II: match statistics

Wisła Płock II is the favorite based on recent statistics: the visitors have scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches while conceding 7, whereas Olimpia Elbląg has only 4 scored and 10 conceded. In their last 5 fixtures Wisła’s record is 2 wins and 3 draws (2-3-0) with an average of 1.8 points per game, while Olimpia has not won any (0-2-3) and averages just 0.4 points per game. The difference in efficiency is clear: on average 2.2 goals per game for the visitors versus 0.8 for the hosts, and the hosts’ defense concedes 2.0 goals per game compared to 1.4 for Wisła. Form confirms the trend — Olimpia has three defeats in five matches ('lldld'), while Wisła is unbeaten in five, including two consecutive wins ('dddww'). Given the better goal differential (+4 vs -6 in the last 5), higher average points gained and offensive advantage, I assess the chances as: visitors win 65%, draw 20%, hosts win 15%.

Seasonal stats are incomplete (all values = 0), so the forecast is based on the last 5 matches. In the last 5 matches the home team had BTTS in 3 of 5 cases (60%), while the away team in all 5 of 5 (100%), which strongly supports a both teams to score scenario. The away side scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches (avg. 2.2 per game), whereas the home side scored 4 goals (0.8 per game) and conceded on average 2.0 goals. xG also supports this picture: away xG is 1.74 versus xG against the home team of 1.55, and home xG is 1.44 versus xG against the away team of 1.65 — both teams are creating and allowing chances. Additionally, form shows the home team are without a win in the last 5 (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses), while the away team are unbeaten (2 wins, 3 draws), increasing the likelihood that the away side will score. Given the away team’s 100% BTTS, average goals of 2.2 vs the home team’s average 2.0 conceded, and the home team’s 60% BTTS, I assign an 85% probability to BTTS - Yes and 15% to No Goal.

I expect around 3.10 total goals in the match: Olimpia Elbląg 1.18 and Wisła Płock II 1.92. xG is 1.44 for Olimpia with an actual average of 0.8 goals in the last 5 matches, indicating low conversion, while Wisła II has xG 1.74 and an actual 2.2 goals, i.e. clearly better finishing. Olimpia conceded an average of 2.0 goals per match in the last 5, and Wisła II conceded 1.4, which increases the likelihood of more goals. Both teams had Over 2.5 in 60% of the last 5 matches, and BTTS was 60% for Olimpia and 100% for Wisła II, so both sides regularly score and concede. Based on this, the best line to play is Over 2.5 (estimated probability ~60%), with Over 1.5 around 82% and Over 3.5 around 38%.

Statistics from the last five matches clearly favor Wisła Płock II: the visitors score an average of 2.2 goals per game versus Olimpia's 0.8, while Olimpia concedes an average of 2.0 goals compared to Wisła's 1.4. Form is significantly on the visitors' side — Olimpia has not won any of the last five matches (0% wins), whereas Wisła is unbeaten (0% losses) with 40% wins and 60% draws. At the break the hosts led in 0% of matches, drew in 40% and trailed in 60%, while Wisła led at half-time in 40% and drew in 40%, suggesting a half-time score most often level or with the visitors leading after 45 minutes. Wisła is also stronger after the break — they score on average 1.4 goals in second halves versus Olimpia's 0.4 and have 100% of matches with at least 0.5 goals in second halves compared to the hosts' 60%, therefore it is more likely that after an even first half the visitors will decide the match. Hence the most probable and strongest signal is HT/FT X/2 (draw at half-time, Wisła win at full-time).