Olimpia Elbląg vs Znicz Biała Piska: match statistics

Olimpia Elbląg is in a better seasonal position: sitting 14th with 9 wins, 7 draws and 16 losses and 41 goals scored, while Znicz Biała Piska has only 3 wins, 3 draws, 26 losses and 24 goals. At home Olimpia averages 1.38 goals scored and concedes 1.75 per match, whereas Znicz on the road scores just 0.69 and concedes 3.5 on average, which is corroborated by xG — 1.32 for Olimpia versus 0.87 for Znicz (xG against 1.34 vs 2.26). The hosts create more chances: 11.14 average shots and 3.86 shots on target at home with 12% conversion, while the visitors register 6.54 shots and 2.54 on target with 9% conversion; additionally Znicz fail to score in 56% of away matches, whereas Olimpia are goalless in only 25% of home games. Both teams show a poor end to the season — 0.2 points from the last 5 matches and 4 losses in those five fixtures, with both conceding 12 goals in their last five, indicating form instability. Considering the superiority in attacking efficiency, better xG and a far more stable defense (Olimpia conceded 61 goals versus 97 for Znicz), I predict a home win.

I assess a higher probability for BTTS - Yes because both teams concede heavily — Olimpia averages 2.56 goals conceded per match, while Znicz concedes 3.50. Low clean sheet rates (13% for Olimpia and 6% for Znicz), high shares of matches over 2.5 goals (63% and 81%) and the league BTTS level at 61% further support a Goal/Goal scenario. In the last 5 matches both teams conceded on average 2.4 goals each, with Olimpia registering 60% BTTS in that period versus 40% for Znicz, indicating a current trend of mutual scoring. xG analysis shows Olimpia produces 1.15 xG with 2.16 xG against, and Znicz 0.87 xG with 2.26 xG against, meaning chances will be created at both ends. Based on these concrete figures I assign 72% to BTTS: Yes and 28% to BTTS: No as the most likely outcome.

Expected goals by xG are 1.15 for Olimpia and 0.87 for Znicz; considering xG against (Olimpia: 2.16, Znicz: 2.26) we arrive at a forecast of about 1.71 for the home side and 1.52 for the visitors, i.e. a total of 3.23 goals. This total of 3.23 is close to the league average of 3.33 and indicates a higher likelihood of goals over 1.5 and 2.5. Historically Over 1.5 occurred in 75% of Olimpia’s matches and 94% of Znicz’s, while Over 2.5 was 63% and 81% respectively, which together provide a strong signal for Overs. Additionally both teams concede heavily—on average 2.56 (Olimpia) and 3.50 (Znicz) goals per match—and the share of games with over 3.5 goals is 50% and 75%, so although Over 3.5 is possible its probability is lower than for 1.5/2.5. Therefore I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 as the strongest signal; I assigned probabilities: Over 1.5 – 90%, Over 2.5 – 72% and Over 3.5 – 56%, reflecting both the xG total (3.23) and the teams’ seasonal percentages.

Statistical analysis favors the home side: Olimpia averages 1.15 xG versus Znicz’s 0.87 xG, while the visitors concede an average of 3.50 goals per match. Both teams score little in the first half — the hosts 0.38 goals to the break, the visitors 0.31 — and on the season Olimpia led at the break in 23% of matches versus Znicz only 6%, increasing the likelihood of a draw or a narrow home lead at half-time. After the break Znicz are very vulnerable defensively: they concede an average of 2.44 goals in the second half, and conceded a total of 39 goals in minutes 46–90 (11 + 14 + 14), which favors a turnaround in Olimpia’s favor. If the score is level or with a small lead at half-time, the majority of goals are most likely to fall after the break for the hosts, hence the 1/1 scenario is the strongest. I therefore assign the highest probability to 1/1 (approx. 25%), with X/1 (21%) and 2/1 (12%) as the main alternatives.