Olimpia vs Libertad: match statistics

Olimpia has a clear home advantage: at home they score on average 1.9 goals and concede only 0.8 per match, have a 70% home win rate with no defeats, and in the last 5 home games they scored 11 goals (2.2 avg) and won 4 of 5. Libertad away scores 1.36 goals and concedes 1.36 per match, has only a 27% away win rate and as many as 64% defeats, and failed to score in 45% of away fixtures. Quality-of-chances metrics favor the hosts: Olimpia records 1.74 xG at home versus Libertad’s 1.51 xG away, registers more shots on target (5.3 vs 4.45) and has better conversion (11% vs 9%). The form gap reinforces this view — Olimpia has accumulated 2.4 points in the last 5 matches, Libertad only 0.8, while the visitors conceded 9 goals in those five games compared to 6 conceded by Olimpia, which increases the hosts’ probability of winning.

Olimpia has BTTS in 80% of the last 5 matches and scores an average of 2.2 goals in those games, while Libertad has BTTS in 60% and scores an average of 1.0 goal, which signals favorability for both teams to score. Seasonal xG for both teams is similar: 1.49 (Olimpia) vs 1.51 (Libertad), with xG against of 1.20 and 1.21, and shots on target 5.55 vs 4.45 indicating both sides create chances. Counterpoints: Libertad failed to score in 45% of season matches and Olimpia has 45% clean sheets, but Libertad has recently conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match (last 5), and Olimpia scored 11 goals in the last 5 games, increasing the likelihood of goals from both teams. Considering last-5 form (80% vs 60%), Olimpia’s higher recent xG 1.94 vs Libertad 1.26, and a league BTTS rate of 51%, I project BTTS at 60% vs 40% and back BTTS - Yes.

Averaging offensive xG and xG against yields ~1.35 expected goals for Olimpia ((Olimpia xG_for 1.49 + Libertad xG_against 1.21)/2) and 1.36 for Libertad ((Libertad xG_for 1.51 + Olimpia xG_against 1.20)/2), totalling ~2.71 goals. This season Olimpia has 55% of matches Over 1.5 goals, Libertad 73%, and in the last 5 matches Olimpia scores on average 2.2 goals and has 80% of matches Over 2.5 (Libertad 60% in last 5). Defensively Libertad concedes on average 1.36 goals per match and has only 18% clean sheets versus Olimpia’s 45%, increasing the risk of Libertad conceding. Both teams rarely finish goalless: Over 0.5 is 91% for Olimpia and 100% for Libertad, which translates into a high probability of at least two goals. Based on this I recommend backing Over, with the 1.5 line as the strongest signal (high likelihood), Over 2.5 offering moderate value (~62%), and Over 3.5 being unlikely (~28%).

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and an Olimpia win at full-time (X/1) — I assigned this a 30% probability, because Olimpia was level at the break in 6 of 11 matches (55%) and won 55% of home fixtures. Olimpia averages 0.73 goals by half-time and concedes 0.36, then scores 1.0 on average after the break, while Libertad has 0.55 first-half goals and 0.82 second-half goals, indicating the home side’s advantage grows in the second half. In the last 5 matches Olimpia won 4 of 5 (80%) and averaged 2.2 goals, whereas Libertad has only 1 win in the last 5 (20%) and averages 1.0 goal, which increases the hosts’ chance to overturn a draw. For this reason scenarios starting from a draw (X/*: 30% X/1, 18% X/X, 7% X/2) total 55% probability, while Olimpia leading at the break (1/*) received 36% mainly distributed to 1/1 (23%) and 1/X (9%). Libertad’s lower efficiency (on average 1.36 scored and 1.36 conceded over the season and only 27% away wins) reduces the probability of scenarios with the visitors leading at full-time (2/*).