Olimpia Zambrów vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki: match statistics

Olimpia Zambrów hold a slight edge thanks to their attacking output at home: they score an average of 2.5 goals per match, while Lechia net 1.67 goals away from home. The hosts have won just 1 of their last 5 matches, but the visitors have lost as many as 4 over the same period. Lechia concede chances worth an average of 2.06 xG on the road, which, combined with the 1.6 xG Olimpia generate at home, increases the hosts’ chances of finding the net. Both defenses remain prone to errors—Olimpia concede an average of 2.17 goals at home, while Lechia concede 2.0 away—so the hosts’ advantage is not decisive.

BTTS landed in 80% of Olimpia Zambrów’s matches and 100% of Lechia’s, while both teams recorded an 80% rate across their last 5 matches. Neither team has kept a clean sheet this season, which supports the prospect of both sides scoring. Olimpia average 2.2 goals at home, while Lechia average 1.67 away; they also concede 2.2 and 2.0 goals respectively. Their attacking potential is reflected in xG figures of 1.91 for the hosts and 1.74 for the visitors, although the fact that Olimpia failed to score in 20% of their matches is a risk to this pick. With the league average for BTTS at 70%, the teams’ combined record points clearly to BTTS - Yes.

All previous matches between the two teams have gone over 1.5 goals, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal in the data. Olimpia average 2.2 goals scored and the same number conceded, while Lechia score 1.67 goals and concede 2.0, pointing to goals at both ends. The xG figures support this: 1.91 for Olimpia and 1.74 for Lechia, with xG conceded at 1.72 and 2.06, respectively. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of each team's last five matches; however, the 1.5 line offers a greater safety margin given the projected total of 3.70 goals.

Olimpia led at the break in 3 of their 5 home matches, while Lechia were trailing at half-time in 3 of their 6 away games. The hosts average 1.4 goals at home before the break, and the visitors concede an average of 1.17 goals away from home during that period, supporting the prospect of an early Olimpia lead. The hosts’ more effective attack also points to them maintaining that advantage: they average 2.2 goals per match compared with Lechia’s 1.67, and have an xG of 1.91 versus 1.74. However, the 1/1 HT/FT pick is not certain, as Olimpia concede an average of 1.6 goals at home after the break, while Lechia score 1.17 away goals during that period. Despite this risk, an Olimpia lead at the break followed by a home win remains the most likely single outcome.