Olimpija vs Aluminij: match statistics

Olimpija are the favorites: they sit 4th in the table versus Aluminij’s 7th and have 12 wins this season compared to the visitors’ 9. The hosts’ main advantage is defense — they have conceded 31 goals this season versus the visitors’ 48 (a 17-goal gap), and at home concede 1.43 goals on average with 36% clean sheets, while Aluminij concede 1.69 on the road with 15% clean sheets. In attack, Olimpija at home generate average xG 1.55, 11.07 shots and 3.79 on target per match, whereas Aluminij away have xG 1.35, 9.85 shots and 3.69 on target; the visitors have higher finishing efficiency (15% vs 12%), which explains their 1.46 goals per match despite lower xG. In the last 5 rounds Olimpija scored 3 and conceded 4 (1.0 pts/match), while Aluminij scored 8 and conceded 9 (0.8 pts/match), so the visitors are more productive offensively but also more unstable defensively. Considering better xG, possession control (52% vs 48%), fewer goals conceded (31 vs 48) and a higher clean sheet rate, I tip an Olimpija win, with a moderate chance of a draw and limited probability of an away victory.

Both teams have very high seasonal BTTS rates: Olimpija 79% and Aluminij 77%, averaging about 78%, which is significantly above the league average of 61%. Additionally, clean sheets percentage is low: 14% for the home side and 15% for the away side, while average goals conceded are 1.86 (Olimpija) and 1.69 (Aluminij), indicating vulnerability to conceding. xG profiles also support this view: attacking xG is 1.35 for both, and xG against is 1.91 (home) and 1.83 (away), suggesting expected scoring opportunities are similar on both sides. Although Olimpija’s BTTS in the last 5 matches is lower at 40% versus Aluminij’s 60%, the overall seasonal trend of 79%/77% and the high share of over 2.5 goals matches (79% and 69%) dominate. On this basis, a clear signal is BTTS = Yes, therefore I recommend 'yes' with a probability of 78%.

I estimate Olimpija to score about 1.59 goals and Aluminij about 1.63 goals — calculated as the average of attacking xG and opponent’s conceded xG ((1.35+1.83)/2 and (1.35+1.91)/2), totaling 3.22 expected goals. Seasonal metrics show Over 1.5 occurred for Olimpija in 86% of matches and for Aluminij in 100% (average 93%), so exceeding 1.5 is very likely. The 2.5 line also looks strong: Over 2.5 for the home side 79% and for the away side 69% (average 74%), which is above the league average of 63%, further supporting a signal for more than 2 goals. Additionally both teams score in 79% (home) and 77% (away) of their matches, and the combination of Over 2.5 and BTTS registered 71% for the home team and 62% for the away team, increasing the chance of more than 2 goals. Based on these numbers the best choice is Over 1.5 (the strongest signal ~93% and expected 3.22 goals), therefore I recommend the Over side on the 1.5 line.

The most likely scenario is Olimpija leading at half-time with Aluminij winning the match (HT/FT 1/2): the home side led at the break in 5 matches (36%), while the visitors led in only 1 match (8%). In the second half the visitors show a clear strength in staging turnarounds — they average 1.15 goals after the break versus 0.79 for the hosts, and 85% of Aluminij’s second halves feature at least one goal (vs 71% for Olimpija). Over the season Aluminij performs better across the full 90 minutes: 1.31 points per game and 38% wins, compared to 1.07 points and 29% wins for Olimpija, which increases the likelihood of a second-half turnaround. Both teams’ attacks are similar in xG (1.35 vs 1.35), but the home side concedes a slightly higher opponent xG (1.91 vs 1.83), suggesting greater risk of conceding after the break. For these reasons the probability distribution favors 1/2 as the strongest signal, although alternatives include 1/1 or X/2.