Olimpija vs Radomlje: match statistics

I back a home win (Olimpija) based on defensive superiority and quality of created chances. Olimpija concedes 1.31 goals per home match vs 1.75 conceded by Radomlje away; season-to-date hosts have allowed 37 goals vs 59 for visitors. Olimpija also posts higher home xG (1.58 vs 1.32), more shots per match (11.25 vs 10.06) and more shots on target (3.94 vs 3.75), and their share of matches without conceding is only 13% vs 19% for Radomlje. Although Radomlje scored 46 goals this season vs Olimpija’s 44, the visitors have conceded 9 goals in the last 5 matches vs 6 conceded by Olimpija and have only 13% clean sheets on the road vs 38% for the home side. Based on this I estimate probabilities: Olimpija win 55%, draw 25%, Radomlje win 20%.

The dominant signal is a very high season BTTS rate: Olimpija and Radomlje each have BTTS at 75%, while the league average BTTS is 59%, providing strong historical support for a both-teams-to-score scenario. Both teams create similar chances — xG 1.31 for Olimpija and 1.32 for Radomlje — while their opponents concede xG of 1.59 and 1.89, so both sides have realistic chances of scoring at least once. Additionally, shot numbers and efficiency (3.69 and 3.75 shots on target, 8.81 and 10.06 total shots, and conversion 16% and 14%) and very low clean sheet percentages (6% and 13%) argue that goal-scoring opportunities are likely to end in goals. Short-term signals should be considered: in the last 5 matches Olimpija has only 40% BTTS versus 60% for Radomlje and concedes on average 1.2 and 1.8 goals in that period, which slightly reduces confidence in an open-goal forecast. Considering the seasonal 75% BTTS for both teams, high rates of matches over 2.5 goals (81% for Olimpija and 75% for Radomlje) and the low number of clean sheets, I select BTTS = 'Yes' with probability 75% and 'No' 25%.

I project approximately 1.60 goals for Olimpija and 1.46 for Radomlje, yielding a combined xG of 3.06 (calculated as the average of offensive xG and opponent xG: 1.31 vs 1.89 and 1.32 vs 1.59). Season data show Olimpija with 100% of matches over 1.5 goals and Radomlje 94%, while 75% of matches see both teams scoring, which strongly supports Over 1.5 (estimated 96%). Over 2.5 also has solid backing: 81% of Olimpija’s season matches and 75% of Radomlje’s, and 60%/80% in the last 5 matches, so I rate Over 2.5 at about 78%. The chance of Over 3.5 is lower — both teams are at 38% seasonally, and the projected total of 3.06 is below 3.5, so I estimate Over 3.5 at around 36%. The strongest signal from the data is the Over line at 1.5 (100%/94% season rates, xG 3.06 and 75% of matches with both teams scoring).

Radomlje led at half-time in 7 of their matches to date (44%), while Olimpija held a half-time lead in 4 matches (25%), indicating a higher likelihood of the visitors leading after 45 minutes. This is supported by half-time goal averages: Radomlje scores 0.75 and concedes 0.56 on average by the break, whereas Olimpija averages 0.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. Nonetheless, Olimpija mounts turnarounds after half-time — they score an average of 0.94 goals in second halves, and in their last 5 matches they averaged 2.0 points in second halves and won that period in 60% of cases; Radomlje averaged 0.8 points in the last 5 second halves with a 20% win rate for that period. Additionally, both teams have a high proportion of matches with goals from both sides (75% each) and very similar xG: 1.31 for Olimpija versus 1.32 for Radomlje, suggesting goals at both ends but a home advantage in the latter stages of the match; hence the HT/FT 2/1 scenario.