Olympic Safi vs Ittihad Tanger: match statistics

Olympic Safi (14th) and Ittihad Tanger (13th) have similar season records — both teams have 2 wins, but the home side recorded 6 draws and 8 losses while the visitors have 8 draws and 6 losses. In the last 5 matches Olympic scored 6 goals and has a 1-3-1 record (PPG 1.2), whereas Ittihad scored 3 goals and is 0-2-3 (PPG 0.4), which clearly favors the hosts in form. The hosts dominate possession (55% vs 49%), take slightly more shots on target per game (3.38 vs 3.13) and are less likely to finish matches goalless (FTS 25% vs 50%), indicating they create higher-quality chances. On the other hand the visitors have conceded 20 goals this season versus 25 for Safi and have comparable xG values (xG 1.33 for away Ittihad vs 1.34 xG for the hosts), which limits the home advantage. Considering better form, greater possession and a lower rate of scoreless games for Olympic, I predict a home win (60%), draw 25%, away win 15%.

I back BTTS - Yes based on the data: season BTTS rates are 63% for Olympic Safi and 50% for Ittihad Tanger versus a league average of 48%. Both teams average 0.75 goals per match this season but produce xG of 1.18 (Safi) and 1.33 (Ittihad), indicating a finishing deficit of ~0.43 and ~0.58 xG respectively. In the last 5 matches BTTS is 80% for the home side vs 60% for the visitors, and average goals in the last 5 are 1.2 (Safi) vs 0.6 (Ittihad), showing offensive improvement from the hosts. Additionally both teams concede over 1 goal per game this season (1.13 and 1.38) and the visitors have 0% clean sheets vs 25% for the hosts, which increases the likelihood both teams will score; hence a 70% Yes / 30% No rating.

The xG-based model projects approximately 2.67 expected goals: home xG 1.18 vs. opponents’ average xG conceded 1.42 → expected ~1.30 for Olympic Safi; away xG 1.33 vs. home average xG conceded 1.41 → ~1.37 for Ittihad Tanger. Historically both teams have 75% of matches over 1.5 goals, while only 25% exceed 2.5, which strongly favors the 1.5 line and weakens the signal for 2.5. Season-to-date goal numbers are low: home 0.75 goals and away 0.75 (total 1.50), with low shots on target 2.38 and 3.13 and shot conversion rates of 8% and 7%, limiting xG realization. The percentage of matches where both teams scored is 63% for the home side and 50% for the away side, which raises the probability of at least two goals but not necessarily three. As a result I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest play (estimated 80% over / 20% under); Over 2.5 I view as too risky (45%/55%), and Over 3.5 is unlikely (10%/90%).

The hosts were level at the break in 75% of their matches and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 75% of games, which significantly increases the probability of a draw after 45 minutes. In the last five matches Olympic Safi averages 1.2 points per game compared to Ittihad Tanger's 0.4, and by half-time the hosts scored 7 goals in those five fixtures (1.4 per game) while the visitors managed only 3 (0.6 per game). Quality-of-chance metrics show balance: the hosts’ xG is 1.18 versus the visitors’ 1.33, with xG against at 1.41 vs 1.42, indicating a low and similar number of clear opportunities. Considering the high share of half-time draws (around 75%) and the hosts’ better recent form, the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home turnaround by full-time (X/1). I estimate a 30% probability for X/1, 23% for X/X, and collectively the half-time draw options (X/1, X/X, X/2) amount to about a 65% probability, with the remaining scenarios split into smaller shares.