Olympique Béja vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane: match statistics

Although Jeunesse sits 8th with 10 wins and 21 goals this season, while Olympique Béja is 14th with 7 wins and 15 goals, home match statistics favor Béja. At home Béja averages 7.08 shots and 2.92 shots on target per game with an 11% conversion, translating to 0.71 goals and xG 0.96 per match, whereas Jeunesse away averages 6 shots and 2.15 shots on target, 8% conversion, 0.43 goals and xG 0.77. The visitors fail to score in 71% of away matches and win only 14% of those fixtures, while hosts keep a clean sheet in 43% of home games and win 36% of home matches. Defensively both teams are vulnerable (Béja concedes 1.36 goals at home, Jeunesse 1.21 away), but in the last 5 matches Béja scored 5 and conceded 6 with an average of 1.4 points per game, and Jeunesse scored 4 and conceded 4 with an average of 1.2 points per game. Considering the higher volume of chances (2.92 vs 2.15 shots on target), better efficiency (11% vs 8%) and more frequent home clean sheets, I recommend a home win (1) with probabilities: 60% home, 25% draw, 15% away.

Statistical analysis indicates the 'no' scenario (both teams not to score) is more likely: seasonal BTTS rate is 36% for Olympique Béja and only 21% for Jeunesse Omrane, versus a league BTTS level of 26%. The hosts have a clear offensive advantage — xG 1.41 and on average 11.07 shots with 4.93 shots on target per match and 1.07 goals scored, while the visitors have xG 0.77, 6.0 shots, 2.15 on target and only 0.43 goals per match. Béja concedes on average 0.79 goals per match and has 36% clean sheets, while Jeunesse has 29% clean sheets and conceded 0.8 goals on average in the last 5 matches, suggesting frequent single-sided results without BTTS. In the last 5 matches BTTS occurred for Béja in 40% and for the visitors in 20%, and the difference in shots on target 4.93 vs 2.15 further indicates it is more likely only the hosts will score. Based on this I assign 28% to 'yes' and 72% to 'no', therefore I recommend a 'no' pick.

The xG-based model projects total expected goals at 2.53: home xG 1.41 and Omrane’s conceded xG 1.43, yielding ~1.42 expected goals for Olympique Béja; away xG 0.77 and home conceded xG 1.44 yield ~1.11 expected goals for Jeunesse Omrane. Béja generates clearly more chances — averaging 11.07 shots and 4.93 on target per game versus Omrane’s 6.0 shots and 2.15 on target — with shot conversion 10% vs 8%, supporting a higher goals output from the home side. Seasonally 43% of Béja’s matches finish Over 2.5 goals, Omrane 29%, and both teams have 50% of matches Over 1.5, which favors the 1.5 line. A limitation is recent form: Over 2.5 occurred in only 20% of the last 5 matches for both sides — and low BTTS rates (36% for the home team, 21% for the away) reduce confidence at the 2.5 line. As a result I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (highest probability outcome), while the 2.5 line remains balanced and Over 3.5 is unlikely.

Statistics indicate a clear advantage for Olympique Béja: at home they win 57% of matches and have led at the break in 36% of games, while Jeunesse has only 14% away wins and led at the break in 14% of matches. Béja’s xG is 1.41 versus Jeunesse’s 0.77 and they average 4.93 shots on target compared to the visitors’ 2.15, i.e. they create nearly twice as many goal-scoring opportunities and about 2.3 times more shots on target. By half-time the hosts score on average 0.57 goals and the visitors 0.21; in the second half Béja adds on average 0.50 goals while the opponents score 0.21 and concede on average 0.79 goals after the break, which favors maintaining or extending a lead. On this basis the most likely scenario is the hosts leading at the break and winning the match (1/1) — I assess this at about a 29% probability; strong alternatives are draw at half-time and Béja win (X/1) ~19% and draw-draw (X/X) ~15%. Therefore I recommend the 1/1 HT/FT as the strongest signal: the combination of a 36% chance to lead at the break and a higher xG of 1.41 plus 4.93 shots on target makes holding on to the win more probable than a turnaround by the visitors.