Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional: match statistics
Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Once Caldas played against Atlético Nacional in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The game was played on May 1, 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
Once Caldas has 1 win, 4 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. Atlético Nacional has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 2.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Once Caldas scores 1.67 goals per game and allows 1.22. Atlético Nacional scores 1.94 and allows 0.78. Games in this league average 2.50 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 83% of Once Caldas's games and 39% of Atlético Nacional's. The Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 67%, compared with league averages of 53% for BTTS and 47% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Atlético Nacional has the higher season xG average, 1.71 to 1.50 per game. Once Caldas takes 13.4 shots per game, while Atlético Nacional takes 16.4.
First-half and second-half trends
Once Caldas leads at halftime in 33% of its games and scores 0.89 goals per game after halftime. Atlético Nacional leads at halftime in 33% and scores 1.28 after halftime.
When the teams score
Once Caldas's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (8 goals). For Atlético Nacional, it is minutes 76-90+ (9 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Categoria Primera A games average 2.50 goals. Both teams score in 53% of games, and 47% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 4 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 3 away wins. Those games averaged 2.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back Once Caldas to win (1) due to their home offensive advantage: the hosts average 2.11 goals per home match versus Atlético Nacional’s 1.44 on the road. Once Caldas registers an average of 6 shots on target per game and has a home xG of 1.76, while the visitors average 4.78 shots on target and an away xG of 1.44, indicating higher quality chance creation by the hosts. Crucially, Once Caldas has no home games without a goal (0%), whereas Atlético fail to score in 44% of their away matches, which significantly increases the hosts’ likelihood of scoring. On the other hand, Atlético have 13 wins this season versus Once Caldas’s 7, and over the last five matches they average 2.0 points per game compared to the hosts’ 1.8; the visitors’ defense concedes 1.22 goals on the road vs. 1.44 for Once Caldas, which partially evens the contest. Considering xG (1.76 vs 1.44), average goals (2.11 vs 1.44) and the gap in clean-sheet/fail-to-score rates (0% vs 44%), I estimate the probability of a home win at ~55%, a draw at ~20% and an away win at ~25%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Once Caldas at home averages 2.44 goals scored and concedes only 0.33 goals this season, with 67% of their home matches ending in a clean sheet, which strongly favors a No BTTS scenario. Atlético Nacional averages 1.44 goals scored this season and fails to score in 44% of matches, reducing the likelihood that the visitors will score at least once. Although Once Caldas have BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches and concede on average 0.8 goals, and Atlético Nacional recently has xG 1.9 with 7 goals in 5 games, these are short-term signals opposite to the hosts’ season-long form. Overall, the hosts’ season defensive indicators (0.33 goals conceded and 67% clean sheets) combined with the high share of matches in which the visitors do not score (44%) provide a stronger signal for No BTTS, hence the 38%/62% assessment in favor of “No”.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
A model combining xG and defensive profiles projects 1.62 goals for Once Caldas and 1.24 for Atlético Nacional (total 2.86). Once Caldas averages 2.44 goals per game with xG 1.98 and records 67% clean sheets, while Atlético has 1.44 goals and xG 1.44 with only 11% clean sheets; the hosts register more shots on target (7.33 vs 4.78) and have a higher conversion rate (13% vs 11%). Historically Over 1.5 occurred for the home side in 89% and for the away side in 67%, while Over 2.5 appears in 67% of matches for both teams combined, although in the last 5 games the Over 2.5 rate dropped to 40% for each team. Given the aggregate xG of 2.86 and Once Caldas’s strong attacking edge, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (estimated 83%), whereas Over 3.5 is unlikely on a seasonal basis (22%, I estimate 25%). Therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the safest and statistically justified option; Over 2.5 is a secondary play with an estimated probability of about 68%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Once Caldas has a clear offensive and defensive advantage: the home side average 2.44 goals per match (xG 1.98) versus 1.44 goals and xG 1.44 for Atlético Nacional, and the hosts concede only 0.33 goals on average compared to 1.22 for the visitors. The hosts led at the break in 5 matches (56%) and score an average of 0.89 goals by half-time, while the visitors led at the break in only 1 match (11%) and average 0.44 goals by half-time, so the HT lead signal is pronounced. Once Caldas register on average 7.33 shots on target and 19.22 total shots per game with a 13% conversion rate, versus 4.78 shots on target, 13.56 total shots and 11% conversion for the away side, indicating higher-quality chances for the hosts. After the break the hosts press as well — they scored 6 goals in the 46–60 minute window versus 1 for the visitors and have a second-half goals average of 1.56 vs 1.00 — this increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead and closing out the match. Therefore I recommend the 1/1 scenario (lead at the break and home victory).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Once Caldas | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Atlético Nacional is 43% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / game - Once Caldas · 2 pts / game - Atlético Nacional
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atlético Nacional is 16% better for: goals scored per game.
1.67 goals / game - Once Caldas · 1.94 goals / game - Atlético Nacional
Atlético Nacional is 56% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.22 goals / game - Once Caldas · 0.78 goals / game - Atlético Nacional
Once Caldas scores in 94% of games (17 of 18 meczów), while Atlético Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 39% (7 of 18 meczów).
Atlético Nacional scores in 72% of games (13 of 18 meczów), while Once Caldas keeps a clean sheet in 17% (3 of 18 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Once Caldas
Over / Under - Atlético Nacional
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Once Caldas is 8% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.56 pts / game - Once Caldas · 1.44 pts / game - Atlético Nacional
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Once Caldas - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 39%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Atlético Nacional - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 72%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 100% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +4 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Once Caldas
Atlético Nacional
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Once Caldas | Liga | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 2.89 | 2.50 | ▲ 2.72 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 83% | 53% | ▼ 39% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 47% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 27% | ▲ 39% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 72% | 70% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 78% | ▲ 89% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Atlético NacionalSubstitutionOn: Nicolás Santiago Rodríguez CalderónOff: Dairon Estibens Asprilla Rivas
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Once Caldas's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses against Atlético Nacional. Games average 2.75 goals, and both teams scored in 50% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Once Caldas 1:0 Atlético Nacional. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Once Caldas and Atlético Nacional?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Once Caldas won 0, Atlético Nacional won 3 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional?
Once Caldas score 1.67 goals per game on average and Atlético Nacional 1.94. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.50 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 83% of Once Caldas's matches and 39% of Atlético Nacional's.
What form are Once Caldas and Atlético Nacional in?
Over the last 5 games Once Caldas have a 1-4-0 record (1.40 points per game) and Atlético Nacional 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.