Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional: match statistics
Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Once Caldas play Atlético Nacional in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The match date is 2 May 2026 at 01:00. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Once Caldas: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Atlético Nacional: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Once Caldas scores 1.57 and concedes 1.19 goals per match. Atlético Nacional scores 1.96 and concedes 0.84. League average: 2.53 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Once Caldas 76%, Atlético Nacional 40%. Over 2.5: Once Caldas 48%, Atlético Nacional 64%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Atlético Nacional has higher xG: 1.75 vs 1.59. Once Caldas: 14.3 shots per match, Atlético Nacional: 16.8.
Match halves
Once Caldas: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.86. Atlético Nacional: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 1.36.
Goals by minute
Once Caldas: 76-90+ (9 goals). Atlético Nacional: 76-90+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Categoria Primera A: 2.53 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
4 H2H matches: 0-1-3. Average goals 2.75, BTTS 50%.
Match description
I back Once Caldas to win (1) due to their home offensive advantage: the hosts average 2.11 goals per home match versus Atlético Nacional’s 1.44 on the road. Once Caldas registers an average of 6 shots on target per game and has a home xG of 1.76, while the visitors average 4.78 shots on target and an away xG of 1.44, indicating higher quality chance creation by the hosts. Crucially, Once Caldas has no home games without a goal (0%), whereas Atlético fail to score in 44% of their away matches, which significantly increases the hosts’ likelihood of scoring. On the other hand, Atlético have 13 wins this season versus Once Caldas’s 7, and over the last five matches they average 2.0 points per game compared to the hosts’ 1.8; the visitors’ defense concedes 1.22 goals on the road vs. 1.44 for Once Caldas, which partially evens the contest. Considering xG (1.76 vs 1.44), average goals (2.11 vs 1.44) and the gap in clean-sheet/fail-to-score rates (0% vs 44%), I estimate the probability of a home win at ~55%, a draw at ~20% and an away win at ~25%.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Once Caldas | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Atlético Nacional is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Once Caldas · 2.4 pts / match - Atlético Nacional
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atlético Nacional is 25% better for: goals scored per match.
1.57 goals / match - Once Caldas · 1.96 goals / match - Atlético Nacional
Atlético Nacional is 42% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.19 goals / match - Once Caldas · 0.84 goals / match - Atlético Nacional
Once Caldas scores in 90% of matches (19 of 21 matches), while Atlético Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 36% (9 of 25 matches).
Atlético Nacional scores in 72% of matches (18 of 25 matches), while Once Caldas keeps a clean sheet in 19% (4 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Once Caldas
Over / Under — Atlético Nacional
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Once Caldas is 5% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.43 pts / match - Once Caldas · 1.36 pts / match - Atlético Nacional
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Once Caldas - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Atlético Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 72%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +8 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +10 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Once Caldas
Atlético Nacional
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Once Caldas | Liga | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.76 | 2.53 | ▲ 2.80 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 76% | 53% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 48% | 48% | ▲ 64% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 27% | ▲ 36% |
| Goal before half-time | • 71% | 70% | ▼ 68% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 78% | ▲ 92% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Once Caldas 0 - 1 - 3 Atlético Nacional. Average goals 2.75, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Once Caldas 1:0 Atlético Nacional. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Once Caldas and Atlético Nacional?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Once Caldas won 0, Atlético Nacional won 3 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional?
Once Caldas score 1.57 goals per game on average and Atlético Nacional 1.96. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.53 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 76% of Once Caldas's matches and 40% of Atlético Nacional's.
What form are Once Caldas and Atlético Nacional in?
Over the last 5 games Once Caldas have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Atlético Nacional 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.