Once Caldas vs Cúcuta Deportivo: match statistics

Once Caldas has a clear offensive edge and better form — the home team scored 33 goals this season, averaging 1.82 goals per home match, while Cúcuta has 22 goals overall and only 1.00 goals per away match. Once Caldas creates significantly more chances: 17.18 average shots and 6.27 shots on target per home game versus 9.00 shots and 3.90 on target for the visitors, and their home xG is 1.83 compared to the visitors’ xG of 1.10. Defensively the hosts also look stronger — Cúcuta concedes 2.20 goals on average away, while Once Caldas allows 1.27 goals per home match; the overall goal difference is +6 for the hosts versus -12 for the guests. Recent form trends confirm the advantage: in the last 5 matches Once Caldas scored 8 goals and averages 1.6 points per game, whereas Cúcuta managed only 2 goals and 0.6 points per game and has not won away (away win percentage 0%). Considering the superiority in xG, shot volume, a lower percentage of matches without scoring (9% vs 40%) and better defensive metrics, I expect a home win.

Both teams show an elevated BTTS profile this season: Once Caldas 67% at home and Cúcuta 60% away versus the league average 53%, indicating both sides are prone to exchanging goals. However, BTTS has dropped to 40% for both in the last 5 matches, with offensive divergence — Once Caldas averages 1.6 goals in those five, while Cúcuta has only 0.4 scored and 1.0 conceded. Season averages show Cúcuta concedes 2.2 goals per game and scores 1.0, whereas Once Caldas scores 1.33 and concedes 1.44; clean sheets are just 22% (home) and 10% (away), so both teams are prone to conceding. Recent xG (1.84 for Once Caldas vs 1.05 for Cúcuta) and season xG against (1.67 vs 1.75) further indicate meaningful chances are being created and allowed. Therefore I forecast BTTS: 62% Yes and 38% No — top pick: Yes, combining high season BTTS rates with low clean sheet percentages, with moderate risk from Cúcuta’s recent goal-scoring struggles.

The strongest signal points to Over 1.5: Once Caldas have 89% of matches over 1.5 goals, Cúcuta 90%, and the league average goals is 2.53, which supports at least 2 goals. Once Caldas have xG_for 0.94 for the season, but in the last 5 matches xG_for rises to 1.84 and they scored 8 goals in those 5 matches (1.6 avg), while Cúcuta concede 2.20 goals on average this season, so I attribute Once Caldas about 1.59 expected goals. Cúcuta have xG_for 1.10 and a seasonal goals average of 1.00, yet only 2 goals in the last 5 (0.4 avg); against them Once Caldas concede 1.44 goals on average (xG_against 1.67), which gives Cúcuta roughly 1.21 expected goals. Both teams frequently record Both Teams To Score (Once Caldas 67%, Cúcuta 60%) and 0-0 is rare (Once Caldas 100% of matches >0.5 goals, Cúcuta 90%), so a 2+ goals scenario is the strongest; lines at 2.5 (Over ~56%) and 3.5 (Over ~30%) are less certain due to mixed seasonal indicators of 44–60% for Over 2.5 and 33–50% for Over 3.5.

Once Caldas has a clear advantage at the break: they lead at half-time in 44% of matches and score an average of 0.89 goals by half-time, while Cúcuta averages 0.5 goals before the break. Over full matches the home side averages 1.33 goals at home, whereas the visitors concede on average 2.2 goals per match and have not won this season (0% wins), which reduces their chances of a turnaround. Additionally, Once Caldas has better shot efficiency (conversion 16% versus 11%) and collects an average of 1.78 points by half-time compared to Cúcuta’s 0.9 points, so statistically they more often retain a lead from the first half. Although the second half produces goals (over 0.5 goals in the second half in 78% of the home team’s matches and 80% of the away team’s matches), Cúcuta concedes an average of 1.3 goals after the break on the road while scoring 0.5, so comebacks are less likely for them. On this basis the most likely scenario is HT/FT 1/1 (36% probability), with X/1 (25%) and X/X (15%) as the closest alternatives.