Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellín: match statistics
Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellín: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Once Caldas play Independiente Medellín in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The match date is 3 April 2026 at 03:30. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Once Caldas: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Independiente Medellín: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Once Caldas scores 1.57 and concedes 1.19 goals per match. Independiente Medellín scores 1.37 and concedes 1.26. League average: 2.53 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Once Caldas 76%, Independiente Medellín 68%. Over 2.5: Once Caldas 48%, Independiente Medellín 58%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Once Caldas has higher xG: 1.59 vs 1.53. Once Caldas: 14.3 shots per match, Independiente Medellín: 14.6.
Match halves
Once Caldas: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.86. Independiente Medellín: half-time lead 16%, second-half goals 0.89.
Goals by minute
Once Caldas: 76-90+ (9 goals). Independiente Medellín: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Categoria Primera A: 2.53 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
2 H2H matches: 0-0-2. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 50%.
Match description
Once Caldas has a clear advantage in chance creation and finishing: at home they average 17.57 shots per match (6.71 on target) and score 2.29 goals with an xG of 1.88, while Independiente Medellín away averages only 11 shots (3.86 on target) and scores 1.29 goals with an xG of 1.14. The hosts have no home games without scoring (0% scoreless matches) compared to 29% scoreless matches for the visitors, which further indicates a high likelihood of Once Caldas finding the net. Defensively there is no clear edge: Once Caldas concedes 1.57 goals per home match on average, and the visitors concede 1.43 away, so the advantage lies more in the quality of the hosts’ attack than in weaknesses in the opponent’s defense. Recent form over the last five matches favors Independiente (2.4 points on average in the last 5, 4 wins and 1 loss), while Once Caldas has 1.6 points (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), which reduces the home advantage and gives the visitors a realistic chance. Considering the xG advantage (+0.74), possession (60% vs 48%) and chances created (17.57 vs 11 shots), I project a home win probability of 60%, draw 20% and away win 20%.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Once Caldas | Independiente Medellín | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Independiente Medellín is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Once Caldas · 1.8 pts / match - Independiente Medellín
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Once Caldas is 15% better for: goals scored per match.
1.57 goals / match - Once Caldas · 1.37 goals / match - Independiente Medellín
Once Caldas is 6% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.19 goals / match - Once Caldas · 1.26 goals / match - Independiente Medellín
Once Caldas scores in 90% of matches (19 of 21 matches), while Independiente Medellín keeps a clean sheet in 26% (5 of 19 matches).
Independiente Medellín scores in 89% of matches (17 of 19 matches), while Once Caldas keeps a clean sheet in 19% (4 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Once Caldas
Over / Under — Independiente Medellín
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Once Caldas is 70% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.43 pts / match - Once Caldas · 0.84 pts / match - Independiente Medellín
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Once Caldas - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Independiente Medellín - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 16% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Once Caldas
Independiente Medellín
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Once Caldas | Liga | Independiente Medellín | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.76 | 2.53 | ▲ 2.63 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 76% | 53% | ▲ 68% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 48% | 48% | ▲ 58% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 27% | • 26% |
| Goal before half-time | • 71% | 70% | ▲ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 78% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Once Caldas 0 - 0 - 2 Independiente Medellín. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellín?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Once Caldas 1:1 Independiente Medellín. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Once Caldas and Independiente Medellín?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Once Caldas won 0, Independiente Medellín won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellín?
Once Caldas score 1.57 goals per game on average and Independiente Medellín 1.37. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.53 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 76% of Once Caldas's matches and 68% of Independiente Medellín's.
What form are Once Caldas and Independiente Medellín in?
Over the last 5 games Once Caldas have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Independiente Medellín 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellín?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.