One Knoxville vs Portland Hearts of Pine: match statistics

One Knoxville sit 4th, while Portland Hearts of Pine are only 11th, and the hosts’ overall season record stands at 11 wins in 19 matches compared with 5 victories for the visitors. Recent form also clearly favors the hosts: they have collected 10 points from their last five games, winning 3 times, whereas Portland have failed to win any of their matches and picked up just 2 points. At home, One Knoxville win 60% of their matches, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and creating chances worth 1.80 xG, with 15.5 shots and 5.7 shots on target per game. Portland’s away defense concedes an average of 2.2 goals, allows opponents 2.03 xG and keeps a clean sheet in just 10% of matches, which should provide the hosts with plenty of opportunities. The visitors could still find the net, as they average 1.5 goals away from home, but their 30% rate of failing to score and a run of just 6 goals scored across their last five appearances point towards a One Knoxville victory.

The signal for goals from both teams is clear: BTTS - Yes occurred in 78% of One Knoxville matches and 70% of Portland Hearts of Pine fixtures, compared with the league average of 55%. Both teams very rarely keep a clean sheet, doing so in just 11% and 10% of matches respectively, which increases the chances of at least one goal from each side. One Knoxville score an average of 1.56 goals, while Portland average 1.50, with the visitors conceding as many as 2.20 goals per game. BTTS - Yes landed for both teams in 80% of their last five matches, while Portland conceded 2.0 goals per game during this period. The hosts should create plenty of chances, averaging 14.78 shots and recording an xG of 1.71, while the visitors' xG from their last five matches stands at 1.48, against the opponent's defensive xG of 1.63.

One Knoxville score an average of 1.56 goals per match, while Portland’s defense concedes as many as 2.20 goals and allows chances worth an average xG of 2.03. The hosts are also in good attacking form, scoring 1.8 goals per match in their last five appearances, while Portland have conceded 10 goals during that period. At least 2 goals were scored in 89% of One Knoxville’s matches and 80% of Portland’s, while both teams kept a clean sheet in only 11% and 10% of matches, respectively. Over 1.5 is therefore the strongest selection, as even with only moderate finishing efficiency, the hosts’ attacking advantage over the visitors’ defense clearly favors going above this low line.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a One Knoxville win after the match, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 80% of their last five games, compared with 67% for Portland. The opening phase should be cautious: the hosts average 0.60 goals before the break, while the visitors average 0.33, and Portland have failed to take the lead at half-time in any of their last five matches. After the interval, the advantage shifts to One Knoxville, who have averaged 1.20 goals in the second half over their last five games and 2.00 points per match in that period, compared with Portland’s 0.67 goals and 0.67 points. The hosts are also clearly superior in current full-match form, winning 3 of their last 5 games while the visitors have recorded no wins, and Portland’s defense concedes an average of 2.00 goals per match. In addition, the hosts’ xG stands at 1.71, while Portland allow opponents 2.03 xG, which supports a One Knoxville win after an even first half. The corresponding HT/FT pick is X/1.