Orange County SC vs Louisville City: match statistics
Orange County SC vs Louisville City: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Orange County SC played against Louisville City in USL Championship (United States). The game was played on August 16, 2026. Venue: Championship Soccer Stadium at OC Great Park. Final score: 2:3.
Recent form
Orange County SC has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 1.60 points per game. Louisville City has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 1.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Orange County SC scores 1.53 goals per game and allows 1.16. Louisville City scores 1.74 and allows 1.68. Games in this league average 2.69 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 58% of Orange County SC's games and 63% of Louisville City's. The Over 2.5 rates are 42% and 53%, compared with league averages of 53% for BTTS and 48% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Louisville City has the higher season xG average, 1.96 to 1.15 per game. Orange County SC takes 9.9 shots per game, while Louisville City takes 16.4.
First-half and second-half trends
Orange County SC leads at halftime in 26% of its games and scores 0.89 goals per game after halftime. Louisville City leads at halftime in 16% and scores 0.95 after halftime.
When the teams score
Orange County SC's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (8 goals). For Louisville City, it is minutes 16-30 (9 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
USL Championship games average 2.69 goals. Both teams score in 53% of games, and 48% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 1 away win. Those games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Louisville City have significantly greater attacking potential away from home: they average 2.00 goals, 13.56 shots and 4.56 shots on target per match, with an xG of 1.70. The visitors have scored in every league away fixture, while Orange County SC failed to find the net in 38% of their home matches and created just 1.07 xG on average. The hosts are more solid defensively, conceding 0.88 goals per home game and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances, but their last five matches produced 9 goals conceded. Louisville have scored 12 goals in their last five league games, twice as many as Orange County’s 6, further strengthening the case for their attacking efficiency. The main risk for the visitors is their defense, which concedes an average of 2.11 goals away from home; however, their superior chance creation and scoring consistency give them a slight edge.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Louisville City has a very strong goalscoring signal, averaging 2.0 goals per game this season and as many as 2.4 in their last five matches, with an xG of 2.02. Orange County SC have conceded 1.8 goals per game over this period, while their average xG allowed to opponents has risen to 2.26, which supports the prospect of an away goal. The hosts have scored in 70% of their league matches, while Louisville’s defense has kept a clean sheet in only 22% of games and concedes an average of 2.11 goals. In addition, BTTS - Yes has landed in 78% of Louisville’s matches and in all five of their most recent fixtures, well above the league average of 53%. Orange County’s weaker recent xG of 0.95 reduces confidence in the pick, but the visitors’ defensive problems still make a BTTS - Yes scenario more likely.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Louisville City score an average of 2.0 goals per game this season, increasing that average to 2.4 goals across their last 5 matches, while Orange County SC conceded 1.8 goals per match during this period. The hosts have a season xG of 2.20 and average 19.0 shots, while Louisville City’s defense allows an average of 2.11 goals and 1.51 xG. At least 2 goals were scored in 80% of Orange County’s matches and 89% of Louisville City’s games, strongly supporting a low goal line. In their last five appearances, both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in 80% of cases, but the 1.5 line offers a greater margin for safety than the more demanding 2.5. The projected total of 3.40 goals is based on the visitors’ attacking form and the hosts’ recent defensive weaknesses, making Over 1.5 the strongest pick.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Orange County SC win, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their matches, compared with 67% for Louisville City. In their last five games, Orange County conceded just 0.2 goals per match before the break, while the visitors, despite averaging 1.4 goals scored in the first half, often failed to establish a lead. After the interval, the hosts won 50% of their second halves, whereas Louisville conceded an average of 1.33 goals during them. Orange County’s advantage in the quality of chances created is also clear: their average xG stands at 2.20 compared with the opponents’ 1.70, while defensive xG is 0.98 against 1.51 for Louisville. The case for a home win is further supported by the full-season record: Orange County won 50% of their matches, while Louisville lost 44%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Orange County SC | Louisville City | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Orange County SC is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / game - Orange County SC · 1.4 pts / game - Louisville City
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Louisville City is 14% better for: goals scored per game.
1.53 goals / game - Orange County SC · 1.74 goals / game - Louisville City
Orange County SC is 45% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.16 goals / game - Orange County SC · 1.68 goals / game - Louisville City
Orange County SC scores in 84% of games (16 of 19 games), while Louisville City keeps a clean sheet in 21% (4 of 19 games).
Louisville City scores in 84% of games (16 of 19 games), while Orange County SC keeps a clean sheet in 32% (6 of 19 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Orange County SC
Over / Under - Louisville City
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Orange County SC is 23% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.37 pts / game - Orange County SC · 1.11 pts / game - Louisville City
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Orange County SC - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 26% of games and wins 47%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Louisville City - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 16% of games and wins 42%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -5 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (9 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Orange County SC
Louisville City
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL Championship).
Teams vs league
| Orange County SC | Liga | Louisville City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.68 | 2.69 | ▲ 3.42 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 58% | 53% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 48% | ▲ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 32% | 28% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 68% | 65% | ▲ 68% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 78% | ▲ 95% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Orange County SC's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss against Louisville City. Games average 1.50 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Orange County SC vs Louisville City?
The USL Championship match finished Orange County SC 2:3 Louisville City. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Orange County SC and Louisville City?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Orange County SC won 0, Louisville City won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Orange County SC vs Louisville City?
Orange County SC score 1.53 goals per game on average and Louisville City 1.74. The USL Championship average is 2.69 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Orange County SC's matches and 63% of Louisville City's.
What form are Orange County SC and Louisville City in?
Over the last 5 games Orange County SC have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Louisville City 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Orange County SC vs Louisville City?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.